January 22, 2025
SEOUL – K-pop’s once-unyielding growth is showing signs of faltering, raising concerns about the lack of globally dominant groups that can sustain the genre’s popularity after BTS and Blackpink.
Industry experts suggest that the surge in concerts by K-pop groups post-COVID-19 may have led to strong export and sales figures in recent years. However, they warn against relying on these metrics as the sole indicators of growth. Rather, there is a consensus that the emergence of a new big-name group is crucial for the long-term stability and success of the industry.
Data from the Korea Customs Service released Sunday showed that K-pop’s physical album exports in 2023 totaled approximately 423.8 billion won ($294.8 million), reflecting a modest 0.55 percent increase from 2022’s 421.5 billion won.
While exports had steadily risen since 2015, 2023 marked the first time in a decade that the growth rate stalled. K-pop album exports and sales, which have paralleled the global hallyu, or Korean Wave, experienced a significant slowdown last year.
Japan, one of K-pop’s top three export markets alongside the US and China, recorded a sharp decline in demand. The export value to Japan dropped 24.7 percent to 130.3 billion won in 2023. Combined, these three markets accounted for 72.8 percent of K-pop’s total export revenue.
K-pop’s record-breaking milestone of 100 million annual album sales, achieved in 2022, also failed to carry over into 2023. According to the Circle Chart operated by the Korea Music Content Association, physical album sales in 2023 totaled 98.9 million units — a 17.7 percent drop from 2022’s 120.2 million units.
The absence or underperformance of major groups is cited as the primary reason for the decline. With globally recognized acts like BTS and Blackpink on hiatus, album sales among next-generation groups have suffered.
Seventeen, the first K-pop group to surpass 16 million cumulative annual album sales in 2023, sold only 8.96 million albums last year. PHOTO: PLEDIS ENTERTAINMENT/THE KOREA HERALD
Seventeen, the first K-pop group to surpass 16 million cumulative annual album sales in 2023, sold only 8.96 million albums last year. The number of groups selling over three million copies of a single album dropped from 11 in 2023 to seven, while those surpassing one million sales decreased from 26 to 24. Notably, no group managed to exceed five million album sales in 2023.
“First and foremost, the absence of major groups is undoubtedly the biggest factor,” music critic Kim Yoon-ha said Tuesday. “In the past, digital and physical album sales were largely driven by a few top-tier teams. Their exceptionally high sales during the pandemic period were abnormally inflated.”
Kim highlighted the importance of diversifying album marketing strategies beyond traditional methods.
“Concert revenue is another significant factor, accounting for 50 to 60 percent of a K-pop agency’s total revenue. This trend is closely tied to merchandise sales, underscoring the need to analyze these aspects together when evaluating the industry’s performance,” she said.
Still, the critic emphasized the urgent need for a new big-name group to ensure K-pop’s continued growth.
“Within the K-pop scene, generational shifts traditionally occur in seven-year cycles, regardless of their global popularity. Industry players are likely aware of this pattern and have strategies in place to navigate these transitions,” Kim said.
“It seems the industry missed the right timing for a generational shift. Some major groups have struggled to maintain momentum, which is why the focus this year should be on promoting boy groups to sustain K-pop’s growth,” she added.