June 12, 2024
NEW DELHI – Indian caretaker Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to start a rare third term in power, but the mood within his party is not all celebratory.
Far from the 370-plus-seat landslide win it had expected, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) clinched just 240 – 32 short of a majority – in the general election results declared on June 4.
Unlike its first two terms in 2014 and 2019, the BJP for the first time needs to rely on its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which won 52 seats, to form and run the government.
And, for a start, not all the allies are aligned with the BJP’s Hindu nationalist ideology.
The BJP will also have to contend with a strong opposition in Parliament, where the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance holds 233 out of 543 elected seats.
“There was initial shock (over the results),” said a BJP leader who spoke on condition of anonymity. “We set a high bar and aimed for the moon but landed on the roof.”
This narrow victory has sent tremors through the BJP, which enjoyed a decade of outright majority that allowed Mr Modi to push through longstanding promises to its supporters, such as removing the special status for Muslim-majority Kashmir in 2019.
There is now speculation of changes within the party as the term of its president, Mr J.P. Nadda, is coming to an end in June.
The party is in a state of introspection over whether mistakes were made in candidate selections and if the induction of politicians from other parties demotivated the cadres.
The BJP rode into this election on a wave of confidence after a series of opinion polls predicted a sweeping victory for the party and Mr Modi.
Among the reasons cited were a weak opposition, his popularity, successful expansion of government schemes, including subsidised food grain to the poor, and the inauguration of a temple for Lord Ram in Ayodhya that was a major election plank of the BJP.
But the party saw its biggest setback in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, where it slid from holding 62 seats since the 2019 election to just 33 this time. The opposition Samajwadi Party won 37 and the Congress Party, seven.
Despite the BJP’s confidence that the opening of the Ram temple would bolster support from Hindu voters, temple politics ultimately failed to secure the party’s victory in this crucial heartland state. It lost in Faizabad district, where Ayodhya is situated.
Even Mr Modi’s winning margin of 152,513 in the Varanasi constituency in Uttar Pradesh was a 60 per cent plunge from the previous election. He clinched 612,970 votes.
In Uttar Pradesh, sources said an internal review has started, and data from each counting booth is being collected.
“What I see in Uttar Pradesh in particular is that people are saying, enough of Hindu-Muslim conflict. That doesn’t mean they rejected the idea of Hindu identity and Hindu assertion. They are happy with the Ram temple, but they didn’t see it as a poll issue,” said Ms Neerja Chowdhury, a journalist and political commentator.
“BJP, I think, for the moment will not go for its Hindu-Muslim rhetoric because it has allies which will take exception, and so it will have to go back to the drawing board.”
The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal U, key allies of the BJP, have the support of Muslims in their own states, and analysts said this may temper the BJP’s Hindu nationalist inclinations.
Following the general election, a handful of states, including Haryana and Jharkhand, will see elections in 2024.
The BJP also performed below its expectations in Maharashtra, Rajasthan and West Bengal due to a variety of reasons, from a strong opposition to rural distress.
Unemployment and inflation also added to voter dissatisfaction in varying degrees across the nation.
On the flip side, the BJP made significant gains in the eastern state of Odisha, where its schemes to help the poor brought political dividends, as they did in many other parts of the country. In Odisha, the BJP won 20 out of 21 seats.
Similarly, it also made notable progress in southern India. The BJP for the first time picked up a seat in Kerala. It won eight out of 17 seats in Telangana. In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP-TDP alliance picked up 19 out of 25 seats.
Different factors worked in the different states, from state to national issues, candidate selection and the success of government welfare schemes.
These gains are likely to help expand its political influence.
“There is nothing to be despondent about. We have done very well in east and south and central India. I am sure the party leadership will analyse the results and the show has to go on,” said Mr Devesh Kumar, a member of the Bihar Legislative Council.
In Delhi, where the BJP won all seven seats, Chandni Chowk constituency victor Praveen Khandelwal said: “One thing the rank and file of the BJP understands is that there is no place for overconfidence.”
Still, Mr Modi has bagged a third term, making him only the second Indian prime minister to do so – after the country’s first prime minister, Mr Jawaharlal Nehru.
“Prime Minister Modi is forming a government. That is a fact,” said Mr Khandelwal. “That is an occasion for workers of the BJP to rejoice and smile.”