Nearly 50% of Thai elderly in debt with no savings

BANGKOK – Public attention is turning sharply to Ekniti Nitithanprapas, newly appointed deputy prime minister and finance minister in the government of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, with the economy as the top priority during the cabinet’s short term in office.

Yet one issue cannot be separated from economic management, Thailand’s ageing society. The country officially became a super-aged society in 2023, when people aged 60 and above accounted for more than 20% of the population, while children made up only 16% and the working-age population 63.6%.

By 2033, seniors will represent 28% of the population, children 14%, and workers 57.9%. By 2040, one in three Thais will be over 60.

Nearly half of Thailand’s elderly have no savings, and almost half carry personal or family debt. The main sources of income for older people are children (35.7%), work (33.9%), and state allowances (13.3%).

Labour participation starts to decline from age 50 among women and from age 55 among men, reflecting the shrinking role of “pre-aged” groups in the workforce.

Between 2015 and 2023, an average of 36.5% of older Thais, about 4.4 million people, remained in the workforce each year, generating about 610 billion baht in income. From 2024 to 2033, the share of elderly workers is projected to rise to 37%, or around 6.6 million people, with annual income expected to increase to 880 billion baht.

As the King has endorsed the new cabinet, observers expect the government’s policy statement to Parliament to include measures addressing the ageing society. Prime Minister Anutin, a former public health minister, and Finance Minister Ekniti, who previously conducted research on ageing while at the National Defence College, are seen as a team well-placed to tackle the issue as both a social and economic challenge.

Squeeze incomes and strain state finances

Looking back to his time as director-general of the Excise Department, Ekniti spoke at the inaugural “Smart Aging Society, Together We Can” forum, organised by the National Health Commission Office in collaboration with the Synergy for Thai Foundation and ten partner organisations.

At the event, he warned that within six years, Thailand’s elderly population would account for 30% of the total, posing a serious economic challenge.

He highlighted two main concerns:

1. Falling incomes and lower growth – As people age, incomes decline, which reduces consumption and investment. Labour force participation also weakens, cutting production capacity. “Thailand’s GDP once grew 4–5% annually, but with these demographic changes, the economy will not be able to return to that level,” he said.
2. Heavier fiscal burden – With shrinking tax revenues from VAT and personal income tax, the state will face rising expenditure for elderly allowances, healthcare, and other welfare schemes. “This will push public debt higher,” he warned.

Ekniti stressed that households will face the same dilemma: declining incomes alongside rising expenses. “In the end, households will fall deeper into debt. We will see a ‘twin debt problem’ — both public debt and household debt rising steadily, becoming increasingly difficult to reduce,” he cautioned.

Extending retirement age, tax incentives 

He said Thailand must adopt a four-pillar strategy to navigate the economic and social challenges of an ageing society.

• Economic power – Policies should extend the retirement age and create more opportunities for older people to remain in the workforce. Tax incentives could encourage companies to hire seniors, while reskilling programmes should equip them with future-ready skills such as AI, digital literacy, and data analytics, including remote-working capabilities.

Thailand also needs to welcome more skilled foreign labour to address gaps in the domestic workforce. On the investment side, tax reductions could be considered for industries related to elderly care and support for people with disabilities. Investment in digital and data infrastructure is also critical, as it underpins services like telehealth.

• Social power – Inequality remains severe. Wealthier groups have retirement funds and private pensions, while middle-class salary earners rely on provident funds and social security, which remain insufficient. Around 15 million people are in the formal system, but contribution levels need to be expanded beyond the current salary cap of 15,000 baht. For low-income earners with no safety net, mandatory savings schemes are essential.
• Local power – Authority should be decentralised to enable communities to care for the elderly through collaboration between the public and private sectors. For instance, underutilised schools, left with declining student numbers, could be converted into elderly care centres, supported by village health volunteers.

Business power – It is divided into three sectors: agriculture, industry, and services.

1. In agriculture, which contributes just 6% of GDP but employs 30% of the workforce, Thailand must embrace “precision farming,” using technology to optimise labour, planting cycles and yield per rai, to remain competitive as a food producer.
2. In industry, the country still relies heavily on traditional sectors, underscoring the need to shift toward modern industries such as digital and data infrastructure. This will also require skilled foreign labour to fill critical gaps.
3. In services, wellness and medical tourism should be prioritised to attract international visitors while ensuring benefits reach local communities. Opportunities also lie in promoting Thai herbal medicine and developing senior housing and real estate for retirees.

These views were expressed by Ekniti during his time as director-general of the Excise Department. Now, as deputy prime minister and finance minister, observers are watching closely to see how his perspective translates into policy under Prime Minister Anutin’s government.