December 13, 2024
TOKYO – The government’s decision to spell out a policy to maximize the use of nuclear power generation in the next Strategic Energy Plan reflects strong concerns that failure to harness Japan’s nuclear plants could erode the competitiveness of the nation’s economy.
Given that there are limits to how far the use of renewable energy sources can be increased, decarbonized or low-carbon power sources – including nuclear power – will be essential to achieve decarbonization targets, provide a stable electricity supply and support economic growth.
Since the Great East Japan Earthquake struck in March 2011, the government has made the expansion of renewable energy sources a major pillar of Japan’s energy policy. However, the next strategic energy plan will position both nuclear power and renewables as decarbonized power sources, and indicates a policy to use these sources to their fullest. The strategic plan also will state that the nation “will not rely excessively on specific power sources or fuel sources.”
Use of renewable energy sources has continued to grow since the 2011 disaster, and the amount of electricity generated through these sources has about doubled over the past decade. In particular, solar power has surged 22-fold, and the generation capacity of solar power facilities per total land area has become one of the highest among world’s major nations. Despite this, renewable energy sources accounted for only 22.9% of electricity generated in fiscal 2023.
Under the next strategic plan, the amount of electricity generated through renewable sources will be increased by up to three times the current level in fiscal 2040, and these sources will account for 40% to 50% of total power generation. However, the pace at which these sources have been adopted has slowed in the past few years. Just clearing the threshold of 40% will be difficult, so raising this figure to above 50% is not realistic. Nuclear power will be indispensable for the nation’s efforts to secure decarbonized power generation.
Companies might shift overseas
The government is placing a particular focus on decarbonized energy sources because they are directly connected to the competition among industries for prime business locations. Global IT companies and semiconductor firms are attempting to decarbonize their supply chains, and data centers and semiconductor plants that hold the key to economic growth also require energy sources that do not emit carbon. Japan’s proportion of decarbonized power sources in the total energy supply mix is the lowest of the Group of Seven advanced nations, and there are concerns that Japanese companies could become locked out of supply chains.
Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has led to growing moves around the world to return to nuclear power. At a meeting in May, Nippon Steel Corp. Chairman Eiji Hashimoto, a member of an expert panel discussing the strategic plan, expressed concern that firms in the manufacturing industry could shift operation overseas. “Unless the predictability of a stable supply generated by green power sources increases, some companies will be forced to cut domestic production to reduce carbon dioxide emissions,” Hashimoto said.
Reactor numbers to dwindle
The new strategic plan will state a goal of having nuclear power account for 20% of total electricity generation. Achieving this goal will require having about 20 nuclear reactors in operation. Fourteen reactors have been rebooted since the 2011 disaster, and the government will move quickly to restart nuclear plants that have been confirmed safe to operate. However, the number will inevitably dwindle if the decommissioning of nuclear plants goes ahead.
Under the government’s basic policy for realizing a green transformation to a clean-energy based society, which the Cabinet approved in 2023, reactors set for decommissioning can be replaced only on the sites of existing nuclear plants. The strategic plan also allows the electric power company that operates the reactor to build a replacement on another of its nuclear plant sites.
The government believes this will involve fewer hurdles than constructing new nuclear plants and also make it easier to gain the understanding of local authorities and residents.