March 4, 2025
SEOUL – Expectations for a change of administration to one led by the opposition have widened beyond the margin of error, outpacing projections for the ruling party’s continued rule, a poll showed Monday, as the likelihood of an early presidential election grows.
When asked “What outcome would you expect in the election if an early presidential election were to be held,” 55.1 percent of respondents answered “a change in administration led by the opposition,” while 39 percent supported “the ruling party remaining in power.” The remaining 5.9 percent responded they were not sure.
The survey conducted by local pollster Realmeter at the request of daily news outlet Energy Economic News was conducted Wednesday to Friday, surveyed 1,506 eligible voters.
Compared to the previous week’s results, support for a change of administration rose by 6.1 percentage points, while support for the conservative People Power Party staying in power fell by 6.3 percentage points. The gap between the two positions expanded from 3.7 percentage points the previous week to 16.1 percentage points, exceeding the margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
This trend was observed following the final impeachment hearing for suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol on Feb. 25, with the Constitutional Court largely expected to deliver its ruling by mid-March.
In party approval ratings, the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea led with 44.2 percent, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous week, while the ruling People Power Party trailed at 37.6 percent, down 5.1 percentage points over the same period.
When asked about the most suitable presidential candidate, Rep. Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, led the race with 46.3 percent. He was trailed by Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo of the ruling party with 18.9 percent and former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon at a distant 6.9 percent.
Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min ― all members of the conservative ruling party ― lagged further behind with 6.8 percent, 5.1 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.
Behind them, former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon of the New Future Democratic Party polled at 1.7 percent, followed by Gyeonggi Province Gov. Kim Dong-yeon and South Gyeongsang Province Gov. Kim Kyung-soo, both of the Democratic Party, at 1.4 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.
Meanwhile, the main opposition’s top contender Rep. Lee also outperformed all ruling People Power Party candidates in one-on-one matchups.
Against Kim Moon-soo, Lee led by 18.4 percentage points ― 50 percent to 31.6 percent. Against Oh, Lee led by 26.8 percentage points ― 50.3 percent to 23.5 percent ― while against Hong, he led by 25.8 percentage points ― 50 percent to 24.2 percent.
Among these, Lee’s widest lead was against Han, where Lee led by 29.4 percentage points ― 49.7 percent to 20.3 percent.
The response rate of the survey was 6 percent, with 1,506 completed responses out of 25,263 calls. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.