March 6, 2025
TOKYO – Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba got over the biggest hurdle of the first half of the Diet session after the House of Representatives passed the revised bills regarding the fiscal 2025 budget and tax reform on Tuesday.
However, he appeared to still be struggling to coordinate partial coalitions, in which the ruling parties cooperate with opposition parties on a policy-by-policy basis.
Ruling parties will have to change its coalition partners each time in upcoming deliberations on such issues as political donations from corporations and organizations, as well as on a selective surname system for married couples.
The prime minister will have to play his cards right.
Sense of relief
Ishiba visited the Japan Innovation Party’s waiting room in the Diet after Tuesday’s vote.
“Thank you for your help,” Ishiba told JIP coleader Seiji Maehara while shaking his hand.
As the negotiations with the JIP had been a tightrope walk until the very end, Ishiba looked to be filled with a sense of relief.
At a party leader meeting on Feb. 25, the Liberal Democratic Party, its ruling coalition partner Komeito and the JIP agreed to revise a draft budget, the main point being the JIP wanting to offer free high school education. Once that was decided, the JIP decided to vote in favor of the budget bill.
However, they were divided over the revision of the ¥1.03 million threshold for taxable income. While the ruling parties called for support to raise the threshold from the proposed ¥1.23 million to ¥1.6 million, the JIP fought back saying taxes had not been discussed.
As a result, senior ruling party members had to get their understanding behind the scenes, and coordination within the JIP also lasted until the day before the vote.
Latter half
The situation in which the government and ruling parties will not be able to pass bills in the lower house without support from opposition parties is expected to continue in the second half of the Diet session. They will have to form ad hoc coalitions based on each pending issue.
Regarding the corporate and group donation issue, which is expected to be concluded by the end of March, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the JIP call for the abolition of such contributions. However, the LDP is taking the stance of “disclosure rather than prohibition” and is ensuring the transparency of political funding.
The Democratic Party for the People seems to understand the LDP’s hope to keep receiving for such contributions, but the LDP must first rebuild trust with the DPFP, considering, in the past, the LDP rejected the DPFP’s arguments on ***a*** draft budget after comparing them with the JIP’s.
In April, the introduction of a selective surname system will be deliberated in earnest in the CDPJ-chaired Judicial Affairs Committee. The LDP is split on the issue, and if the CDPJ decides to start deliberations on its bill, the LDP will have to prepare a counterproposal.
If the LDP decides to push for an expansion of the unofficial use maiden names, as supported mainly by the party’s conservative members, joining hands with the JIP would be an option because it made a similar promise in the lower house election last year.
Even so, Komeito is in favor of separate surnames, making it difficult to reach a consensus within the ruling parties.
Leaving it to others
Some members within the LDP have felt frustrated over the budget draft revision, with some complaining that the party “gave in too much to the opposition parties.”
A senior LDP member was dissatisfied that party Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama and Policy Research Council Chairman Itsunori Onodera coordinated the negotiations with the opposition parties, saying: “The prime minister’s leadership was not seen at all. He had other people handle the negotiations and accepted the opposition parties’ arguments as is.”
The Yomiuri Shimbun’s public opinion poll shows the Cabinet’s approval rating has been hovering at around 40%. A further decline might spur moves to search for Ishiba’s replacement before the House of Councillors election this summer.