February 15, 2024
JAKARTA – The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is set to come out on top in the 2024 legislative election, according to several preliminary counts, as it seeks to continue its 10 years of political dominance.
A quick count released by Litbang Kompas, the research arm of Kompas daily, showed that as of 10 p.m. on Wednesday, some nine hours after polling stations closed, the PDI-P led the race for seats in the House of Representatives with 17.3 percent of the vote. By that time, the pollster had counted 60 percent of the total vote samples, which were collected from 2,000 polling stations nationwide.
The quick counts of this year’s legislative votes have been slower than those of the presidential election even though the elections were held simultaneously on Wednesday. It is possible the figures could change, and the official results will be announced by the General Elections Commission (KPU) by March 20.
Another preliminary result released by Jakarta-based pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia found that the PDI-P had secured 16.67 percent of the vote as of 10 p.m, based on a quick count of 68 percent of the total 3,000 polling stations it sampled.
If the quick counts hold true, the PDI-P will have lost electoral ground. In the previous legislative election in 2019, the party won 19.33 percent of the vote, according to the official KPU results, and dominated in 18 provinces, including Bali, Central Java, West Sulawesi and Central Kalimantan.
The Wednesday quick counts indicated that the Golkar Party stood neck and neck with the Gerindra Party with 13 to 14 percent of the vote. Golkar appeared to have a slight lead.
The preliminary standings are similar to the official results of 2019, where Gerindra won 12.57 percent of the vote, while Golkar landed in third place with 12.51 percent.
Gerindra and Golkar are both part of a ten-party electoral coalition that supported the presidential bid of Prabowo Subianto and running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.
Two of the other parties backing Prabowo are the Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN), which placed seventh and eighth, respectively, in the two quick counts on Wednesday. They appeared to have won 6 to 7 percent of the vote, close to their 2019 results.
The Islam-based National Awakening Party (PKB), which championed candidate Anies Baswedan in the presidential race, ranked fourth in the preliminary vote sampling results, securing 10 to 11 percent of the vote, surpassing the party’s 2019 result of 9.6 percent.
The NasDem Party and the Islam-based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), both of which also supported Anies, trailed behind the PKB with around 9 percent of the vote.
The future of the United Development Party (PPP), another Islam-based party, in the House seemed shaky after the quick counts suggested it had won about 3.6 percent of the vote. The PPP supported PDI-P candidate Ganjar Pranowo in the presidential race.
A political party must win at least 4 percent of the national vote to be awarded seats in the House.
The youth-focused Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), chaired by Jokowi’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, fell short of its goal of earning a seat in the House, according to the preliminary standings.
The party won 2.6 percent of the vote, according to the two quick counts as of Wednesday night, higher than the 1.8 percent it secured in 2019 but still below the threshold necessary to send a representative to the House.
Newcomer the Labor Party, which was formed by a group of labor unions, gained less than 1 percent of the vote in the quick counts, as did three other newcomer parties: the Gelora Party, the Ummat Party and the Nusantara Awakening Party (PKN).
Philips Vermonte, executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the PDI-P had seen a lower share of the vote this year than in 2019 because of its ongoing rift with one of its most prominent members: President Jokowi.
“Some people chose the PDI-P in the 2019 elections because of Jokowi. Now since the party has distanced itself from the president they opted to choose the parties that supported the Prabowo-Gibran pair,” he told The Jakarta Post.
The PDI-P has gone on the offensive against President Jokowi after his eldest son Gibran joined the presidential race on a rival ticket as Prabowo’s running mate.
Although Jokowi has stopped short of explicitly endorsing a set of candidates, he has been accused of covertly marshaling support for the Prabowo-Gibran pair instead of the PDI-P’s candidate, Ganjar.
Political analyst Airlangga Pribadi Kusman of Airlangga University predicted that the PDI-P would be in opposition to the new government as the quick counts showed that Prabowo led the presidential race. (ipa/kuk/dds/yve/fia/yer/rad)