March 21, 2024
JAKARTA – The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has won the popular vote in the 2024 legislative election, according to the final General Elections Commission (KPU) vote tally, with the Golkar Party following in a close second.
After concluding a month-long tiered vote tabulation that was marred by allegations of inflated vote numbers and technical glitches, the KPU announced on Wednesday that the PDI-P had won 25.3 million votes nationwide, or 16.7 percent of the total vote, in the race for House of Representatives seats.
The KPU has yet to announce how the votes will translate into House seats, but having the most votes means the PDI-P stands to extend its dominance in the legislature for another five years, despite its effective break with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, a nominal party member.
The other strong contender to secure the most House seats is Golkar, which won 23.2 million votes, or 15.3 percent of the total vote, a significant improvement from its showing in the last election. President-elect Prabowo Subianto’s Gerindra Party placed third with 20 million votes.
The National Awakening Party (PKB) – whose chair Muhaimin Iskandar was the running mate of presidential candidate Anies Baswedan – placed fourth with 16.1 million votes. It was closely followed by two other pro-Anies parties: the NasDem Party, with 14.6 million votes, and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), with 12.7 million.
The Democratic Party, with 11.2 million votes, and the National Mandate Party (PAN), with 10.9 million votes, passed the 4 percent threshold to send representatives to the House, rounding out an eight party House for the 2024-2029 sitting period.
The United Development Party (PPP), meanwhile, stands to lose its seats in the House, having won 5.8 million votes, or 3.9 percent of the total vote, below the cutoff for representation in the legislature. The party, which supported PDI-P presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo, currently controls the smallest share of seats with 19.
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Nine other parties on the ballot – including the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), chaired by Jokowi’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep; media mogul Hary Tanoesoedibjo’s Perindo Party; and the Crescent Moon Party (PBB) – also fell short of their goal of earning seats in the House.
Split results
While Prabowo managed to secure a landslide victory in the presidential race, winning the most votes in all but two of the country’s 38 provinces, his party Gerindra appeared to have a more muted performance in the legislative race.
In Prabowo’s camp, the Democratic Party also experienced a decrease in its popular vote compared with the previous election, while PAN saw a slight increase. Golkar, on the other hand, was the only party in Prabowo’s electoral alliance to see a significant jump in its popular vote, leapfrogging Gerindra to place second.
This ran counter to the PDI-P, whose presidential candidate Ganjar lost in all 38 provinces, despite the PDI-P leading the popular vote in the legislature.
Political analyst Wasisto Jati said the general election showed that an increasing number of voters were loyal to political parties but not to the presidential candidate their party endorsed, a phenomenon known as “partisan voting”.
“This has happened in Central Java and East Java, where the PDI-P and PKB, respectively, dominated the legislative election but had their candidates beaten in the presidential race,” said the analyst from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).
According to KPU data, the PDI-P won eight of the 10 electoral districts in Central Java, while the PKB won five of the 11 electoral districts in East Java.
“This partisan voter phenomenon stands in contrast to previous general elections,” Wasisto added.
House dynamics
Attention has begun shifting to how the votes will translate into House seats. The KPU will only announce the seat allocation after any potential election disputes are settled at the Constitutional Court.
Prabowo’s camp has said it would welcome parties from rival camps in its House coalition. A PPP politician has hinted at the possibility of the party realigning with Prabowo, while several analysts predict that the PKB and PKS will take up Prabowo’s offer.
A meeting between Jokowi and NasDem chair Surya Paloh less than a week after the election has also led some experts to suggest that the outgoing leader is looking to marshal support for the incoming government.
While PDI-P matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri has remained mum about where her party will stand with regard to a Prabowo-led government, a party executive suggested last month that the PDI-P could play an opposition role to Prabowo in the House.
But Wasisto said having the PDI-P as the sole opposition party would not be enough to offer any real resistance to Prabowo’s administration, particularly if the PDI-P failed to secure the House speaker seat, which has traditionally been given to the party with the greatest share of House seats. The role is considered strategic as the House speaker has control over the legislature’s agenda.
“Having a strong opposition is healthy and important for Indonesia’s democracy. But if there’s only one opposition party in the House, it will not be effective enough to be a check and balance to the government,” Wasisto said.