June 11, 2026
MANILA – The declaration of the rainy season is a critical signal for farmers, shaping planting schedules and irrigation management.
On June 4, 2026, Pagasa declared the onset of the rainy season based on meteorological indicators of the southwest monsoon, or habagat. Typhoons Domeng and Ester briefly delivered heavy rains, but these were localized and followed by hot, dry conditions.
Farmers across Luzon and the Visayas expressed skepticism, noting that rainfall remained scattered and insufficient because of the suppressive effects of a developing Super El Niño.
Only western Luzon provinces — Zambales, Palawan and Occidental Mindoro — and Cebu in the Visayas had rainfall exceeding both meteorological and agricultural sufficiency thresholds. However, even in these provinces, effective rainfall was reduced by nearly half because of high losses under El Niño conditions.
Metro Manila and most of Central Luzon remained dry, with rainfall totals far below the 200-millimeter threshold. While Pagasa’s criteria were technically met, farmers experienced insufficient soil moisture for puddled rice planting.
Late planting will push harvests into November and December, which could coincide with peak typhoon season and compound vulnerability.
This paper integrates rainfall data, a 79 percent to 92 percent probability of El Niño intensifying into a Super El Niño by late 2026, dam-level projections and regional agricultural benchmarks to assess the risks of an early seasonal declaration.
Super El Niño suppression undermines the reliability of monsoon rains, rendering Pagasa’s June 2026 declaration premature from an agricultural perspective. Without sustained rainfall, rice yields across Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao face significant reductions, with national losses projected at 25 percent to 35 percent.
The compounding effects of global fuel and fertilizer price spikes, peso depreciation and geopolitical instability intensify food inflation and cost-of-living pressures.
By cross-referencing dam depletion timelines with rainfall scenarios, policymakers gain actionable insights into how irrigation service area losses cascade into regional yield declines, import requirements and fiscal strain.
The scenario analysis links rainfall insufficiency and reservoir depletion, showing how decreases in irrigation service areas and drought risks directly cascade into regional rice yield declines.
Quantitative projections of rice losses are further contextualized by global fuel and fertilizer price spikes, peso depreciation and geopolitical instability in the Middle East, demonstrating how climate and conflict may jointly escalate food prices and cost-of-living pressures in the Philippines.
Introduction
The declaration of the rainy season is a critical signal for farmers, shaping planting schedules and irrigation management.
In June 2026, Pagasa announced the onset of the rainy season, citing habagat rains over western Luzon and the Visayas. Yet the declaration coincided with forecasts of a “very strong” El Niño event, raising concerns about the reliability of rainfall patterns.
Historically, El Niño episodes have reduced rice yields by 20 percent to 40 percent in Luzon, with cascading impacts on national food security, according to PhilRice in 2025.
The 2026–2027 Super El Niño is further complicated by external shocks. Oil prices surged to $110 to $120 a barrel in May 2026, with escalation risks of up to $135 a barrel because of the U.S./Israel-Iran war.
Fertilizer costs rose from $350 a ton in 2025 to $520 a ton in mid-2026, while the peso depreciated from P56 to the U.S. dollar before the war to P63. Worst-case projections placed the peso at P68 to the U.S. dollar, according to Manila Bulletin in 2026.
These combined pressures intensify the cost of rice and other food items, worsening inflation and household vulnerability.
Rainfall and climate context
A quantitative assessment of effective rainfall is as follows: A wet month is defined as rainfall of at least 200 mm or a majority of wet days, with at least 1 mm of rain per day.
The effective rainfall metric is calculated as rainfall minus losses from evaporation at 20 percent to 25 percent, evapotranspiration at 30 percent to 40 percent, deep soil infiltration at 10 percent to 15 percent and surface runoff at 15 percent to 20 percent.
For example, a province with 220 mm of recorded rainfall may retain only about 110 mm to 130 mm of effective water after losses, which is insufficient for puddled rice planting.
Pagasa requires at least five consecutive days of monsoon rains to declare the rainy season, according to SunStar in 2026.
While Domeng and Ester brought localized heavy rains, Metro Manila recorded 0 mm per hour of precipitation on June 8, 2026, despite high humidity and temperatures of 33 degrees Celsius, according to Pagasa in 2026.
Climate models projected a 79 percent to 92 percent probability of El Niño developing by mid-2026 and intensifying into a Super El Niño by late 2026, according to Inquirer.net in 2026.
This suggests that while meteorological criteria were technically met, agricultural conditions remained unfavorable for sustained planting.
Reservoirs, already strained by early dry spells, face accelerated depletion under El Niño suppression, making rainfall sufficiency a fragile and temporary condition.
Super El Niño context
Climate models indicated a 79 percent to 92 percent chance of El Niño developing by June to August 2026 and persisting into early 2027.
A “very strong” El Niño by late 2026 may intensify drought risk.
Early El Niño phases temporarily enhance habagat rains, but later phases typically bring dry spells and drought.
Cebu City experienced flooding on June 3, 2026, because of intense downpours.
Typhoons Domeng and Ester brought short-lived heavy rains, but these were localized and did not replenish soil moisture across Luzon and the Visayas.
Rainfall sufficiency vs. drought risk with dam cross-references
Nationally, against the Department of Agriculture’s 2026 target of 20.3 million metric tons of rice production, losses under Super El Niño could reach 5 million to 7.5 million metric tons, equivalent to 25 percent to 35 percent of national output.
The reframed scenario analysis links rainfall sufficiency and drought risk directly to dam-level projections, showing how reservoir depletion timelines drive regional yield losses.
In Northern and Central Luzon, early rains may allow puddled planting and partial reservoir recovery, but severe drought is expected by July onward.
Pantabangan and Magat reservoirs are projected to fall to 175 meters and 170 meters, respectively, nearing their critical thresholds within four to five months.
Angat, which supplies water to Metro Manila, is forecast to drop to 160 meters within three months, just above its 155-meter critical threshold.
These drawdowns translate into service area losses of 30 percent to 45 percent, resulting in rice yield declines of 2.5 million to 3.8 million metric tons, or 25 percent to 40 percent of regional output.
In Southern Luzon and Bicol, scattered rains and typhoon spillover may sustain partial planting, but extended dry spells will reduce hydropower output, limiting irrigation pumping.
Service area losses of 35 percent to 45 percent are expected, leading to rice yield declines of 0.8 million to 1.2 million metric tons, or 15 percent to 25 percent.
In the Visayas, typhoon rains intermittently replenish soil moisture, but alternating floods and droughts collapse irrigation systems in Iloilo and Negros.
With Magat and San Roque reservoirs both projected to hit critical thresholds within three to five months, service area losses of 30 percent to 50 percent are expected.
This translates into rice yield declines of 1 million to 1.5 million metric tons, or 20 percent to 30 percent.
In Mindanao, localized rains from ITCZ shifts may sustain corn and rice temporarily, but droughts will hit banana, cacao and corn production.
San Roque’s depletion within three months, with a 50 percent service area loss, will indirectly constrain inter-island supply chains.
Rice yield losses are projected at 0.6 million to 1 million metric tons, or 10 percent to 20 percent.
By explicitly cross-referencing dam depletion timelines, the scenario analysis demonstrates that rainfall sufficiency is short-lived, while drought risk is magnified by reservoir collapse.
Irrigation service area reductions of 30 percent to 50 percent across Luzon and the Visayas directly explain the projected national rice losses of 25 percent to 35 percent.
Table 1 highlights how dam depletion timelines directly translate into irrigation service area losses and rice yield declines.
Northern and Central Luzon face the steepest reductions, with Pantabangan and Magat nearing critical thresholds within four to five months, resulting in up to 40 percent regional output losses.
Southern Luzon and Bicol show similar vulnerabilities, with Angat projected to fall dangerously close to its critical level, threatening Metro Manila’s water supply and agricultural irrigation.
The Visayas experience alternating floods and droughts, compounding irrigation collapse, while Mindanao’s indirect dependence on San Roque underscores inter-island supply chain fragility.
These reservoir-linked projections confirm that rainfall sufficiency is short-lived under Super El Niño suppression.
Losses, fiscal costs and import requirements
Table 2 quantifies the economic burden of Super El Niño-induced rice losses.
With 25 percent to 35 percent of national output at risk, farmgate losses alone could reach P150 billion. When indirect impacts, such as transport, milling and trade, are included, total economic losses could reach P250 billion to P350 billion, equivalent to 5 percent to 7 percent of GDP.
To meet the Department of Agriculture’s production target of 20.3 million metric tons, the Philippines would need to import 5 million to 7.5 million metric tons of rice, representing 10 percent to 15 percent of ASEAN’s rice trade volume.
At an average world rice price of $520 per metric ton, according to the World Bank in 2026, this equates to P145 billion to P217 billion in import costs.
With the peso depreciating to P63 to P68 to the U.S. dollar, import costs rise further, magnifying fiscal strain.
These figures underscore the dual challenge of domestic production collapse and heightened import dependency, both of which intensify inflationary pressures.
Table 3 situates rice losses within the broader context of global price shocks.
Oil prices surged to $120 a barrel, with escalation risks to $135 because of conflict in the Middle East, raising irrigation and logistics costs.
Fertilizer prices jumped by nearly 50 percent, inflating farm-level expenses.
Peso depreciation compounds these shocks, pushing import costs higher.
Together, these factors drive food inflation to 12 percent to 15 percent year-on-year, creating a cost-of-living crisis that extends beyond rice to maize, vegetables and fisheries.
The convergence of climate suppression and geopolitical instability illustrates how external shocks magnify domestic vulnerabilities.
Fuel and fertilizer price shocks compound these losses.
These pressures spill over into the broader food system, raising prices of rice, maize, vegetables and fisheries.
The combined effect is a cost-of-living crisis, with food inflation projected at 12 percent to 15 percent year-on-year by late 2026.
The premature declaration of the rainy season
On June 4, 2026, PAGASA declared the onset of the rainy season based on meteorological indicators of the southwest monsoon, or habagat.
Table 4 shows provincial rainfall totals against effective rainfall. The data show that only western Luzon provinces — Zambales, Palawan and Occidental Mindoro — and Cebu in the Visayas had rainfall exceeding both meteorological and agricultural sufficiency thresholds.
However, even in these provinces, effective rainfall was reduced by nearly half because of high losses under El Niño conditions.
Metro Manila and most of Central Luzon remained dry, with rainfall totals far below the 200 mm threshold, explaining why farmers could not proceed with puddled planting.
In Southern Luzon and Bicol, rainfall was scattered and often lost to infiltration and runoff, leaving effective water below sufficiency levels.
The Visayas presented a mixed picture: Cebu qualified as wet, but Negros and Iloilo remained dry.
Mindanao provinces showed localized ITCZ rains, but evapotranspiration rates under hot conditions reduced effective rainfall to insufficient levels.
The early declaration of the rainy season illustrates the gap between meteorological definitions and agricultural realities.
This quantitative breakdown confirms that Pagasa’s declaration of the rainy season was premature from an agricultural perspective.
While Pagasa’s criteria were technically met, farmers experienced insufficient soil moisture for puddled planting.
Late planting pushes harvests into November and December, coinciding with peak typhoon season and compounding vulnerability.
Reservoir depletion timelines confirm that irrigation service areas will shrink by 30 percent to 50 percent within three to five months, directly driving rice yield losses and import requirements.
The mismatch between recorded rainfall and effective water availability underscores the vulnerability of rice production under Super El Niño conditions.
Conclusions
Super El Niño suppression undermines the reliability of monsoon rains, rendering PAGASA’s June 2026 declaration premature from an agricultural perspective.
Without sustained rainfall, rice yields across Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao face significant reductions, with national losses projected at 25 percent to 35 percent.
The compounding effects of global fuel and fertilizer price spikes, peso depreciation and geopolitical instability intensify food inflation and cost-of-living pressures.
By cross-referencing dam depletion timelines with rainfall scenarios, policymakers gain actionable insights into how irrigation service area losses cascade into regional yield declines, import requirements and fiscal strain.
The convergence of the 2026-2027 Super El Niño, global fuel and fertilizer price spikes, peso depreciation and geopolitical instability in the Middle East has created a polycrisis threatening Philippine food security.
In this context, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. should proclaim a rice emergency to mobilize special powers and resources for farmers and consumers.
Immediate measures must include adaptive cropping calendars aligned with typhoon rainfall windows, reservoir prioritization for food crops and expansion of buffer stocks through diversified ASEAN imports.
Strengthening farmer cooperatives will enhance irrigation coordination and risk-sharing, while investments in drought-tolerant rice will build resilience.
Fiscal allocations of P250 billion to P350 billion are needed for farmgate support, import financing and targeted subsidies for fuel and fertilizer.
Coordinated monetary policies must stabilize the peso to contain import inflation.
Dual advisories from PAGASA — meteorological and agricultural — will ensure farmers receive actionable guidance under crisis conditions.
Specific recommendations
- Adaptive cropping calendars: Align planting schedules with typhoon rainfall windows rather than fixed monsoon declarations.
- Irrigation prioritization: Reservoir management should prioritize food crops over industrial and hydropower demands during drought.
- Buffer stock expansion: Government must prepare rice imports to offset Luzon’s deficits and ensure food security.
- Regional cooperative frameworks: Strengthen farmer cooperatives to coordinate planting, irrigation and risk-sharing mechanisms.
- Climate-resilient varieties: Promote drought-tolerant rice strains through PhilRice and IRRI partnerships.
- Policy communication: Pagasa should issue dual advisories — meteorological onset and agricultural advisories — to bridge technical and practical realities.
- Fiscal allocation: Allocate P250 billion to P350 billion for combined farmgate support and import financing to stabilize the sector.
- Diversified imports: Negotiate supply contracts with multiple Asean countries to reduce dependence on Vietnam and Thailand.
- Energy and fertilizer subsidies: Provide targeted support to farmers to offset high fuel and fertilizer costs.
- Peso stabilization measures: Coordinate monetary and fiscal policy to mitigate depreciation impacts on food imports.