August 14, 2025
MANILA – President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. wasn’t “playing with fire” when he stated that should an all-out war occur between the United States and China over Taiwan, “there is no way that the Philippines can simply stay out of it.”
As he said, it is inevitable.
Marcos, who departed from his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s stance on China and the US, pointed out as a reason the Philippines’ geographic location, as well as the need to evacuate 150,000 overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in Taiwan, a sovereign nation being claimed by China.
READ: Marcos: War in Taiwan to drag PH into conflict
His sentiment is not even new, considering that in 2023, he already stressed that “it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where the Philippines will not somehow get involved.”
Last year, Marcos made a remark, too, saying that “the external threat now has become more pronounced, has become more worrisome, […] that is why we have to prepare.”
READ: Marcos: New Edca sites to strengthen PH defense
Back in 2023, the government of the Philippines and the US agreed to expand the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (Edca) by designating four more military bases as sites.
Interestingly, three of the four locations are in northern Luzon – the Naval Base Camilo Osias and Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan and Camp Melchor dela Cruz in Isabela – and is seen to allow the US enough proximity to Taiwan.
GRAPHICS: PHILIPPINE DAILY INQUIRER
This, especially since the Naval Base Camilo Osias, which is in Sta. Ana, Cagayan, is only 500 kilometers, or a 40-minute flight away from Kaohsiung City, an industrial hub which is the third most populous city in Taiwan.
As the Philippine government, and even Marcos himself, said, the new sites are expected to boost disaster response, but a defense and security analyst explained that the three sites are significant in case of an all-out war.
Chester Cabalza, president of the think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, told INQUIRER.net that the takeover by China of Taiwan will have a “ripple effect” to the First Island Chain, where the Philippines is geographically located.
Taiwan, he said, is the “most prized imagined possession of China to fulfill its rejuvenation policy,” and as he previously stated, the “marked visibility” of the US is making China feel “threatened and contained.”
Cabalza explained that militarily, the three Edca sites in northern Luzon could “exercise interoperability of air, cyber, ground, and sea assets to protect the territorial boundaries of the Philippines from invasion.”
These can also be a primordial security shelter in the case of an all-out war between the US and China over Taiwan, as well as refugee camps for displaced people, including OFWs and Taiwanese individuals.
But not everyone is in favor of having these Edca-designated sites.
‘No to risks’
Cagayan vice governor Manuel Mamba, who was the governor when the province was identified as a location for two Edca sites in 2023, pointed out that the move will bring nothing good to the province.
He said “we can respond to disasters by ourselves,” contradicting what Malacañang had stressed as one of the reasons behind the expansion of the Edca, a 2014 agreement where the US military is given access to military and air bases.
As stated in 2023 by then Defense Secretary Carlito Galvez, Mamba eventually conformed with the national government’s decision to designate Naval Base Camilo Osias and Lal-lo Airport as Edca sites.
READ: Cagayan gov now OK with Edca site, other local gov’t execs ‘very amenable’ — Galvez
But Mamba said he is still against the move. “It is the President’s call, but I maintain my stand against any foreign forces in my province. [I am] still against Edca sites in my province.”
Mamba, who claimed that the US is only after its interests in Taiwan, even asked residents to oppose the designation of Cagayan as among Edca sites, stressing that US presence would drag the province into a conflict.
Before this, Mamba had opposed the conduct of live-fire military exercises between the Philippines and the US as these would put potential Chinese economic investments in the region at risk.
READ: Pro-China governor opposes PH-US live-fire drills
“It may cause a diplomatic row […] We don’t want to anger China here in Cagayan. We see that we could get help from them,” Mamba, who eventually conveyed a warning made by China against the US, said.
Mamba has been consistent in seeking stronger relationships with China, stressing that “neighbors cannot be enemies, otherwise you will never feel safe in your own home.”
READ: Cagayan governor seeks stronger ties with Beijing
Back in 2023, he led a 13-member delegation from his province at the ASEAN-China Conference on Sustainable Development “with the intention of establishing stronger economic and cultural relations.”
“I strongly believe that a part of this sustainable development is the promotion of peace in our part of the region. Cagayan, our province, does not want war nor do we want to be used by other countries,” he said.
Last June, Mamba and now Cagayan governor Edgar Aglipay met with Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian, who visited the province on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the diplomatic relationship between China and the Philippines.
“We could never separate as neighbors; we are always here. I hope your visit today promote[s] stronger ties […] We have learned so much from you. We hope to learn more,” he said.
Nat’l security first
But for Cabalza, “local leaders have a constitutional mandate to disregard their parochial interests to elevate national defense and security in times of conflicts.”
“Local governments are supposed to be natural partners of the national government,” he said. “They must defend the country’s sovereignty as public servants for the interest of the Filipino nation.”
He said “if a local leader forgets the geopolitical importance of his province and disregards the importance of national security and offers allegiance to foreign powers, he must face greater accountability.”
“While it is true that the West Philippine Sea is far from Cagayan but near the Benham Rise, Chinese invasion of Taiwan has ripple effects to the northern Philippines,” Cabalza pointed out.
He explained that “this is not farfetched to China’s gray zone tactics in Palawan with debris falling from Chinese launching of rockets,” while pointing out the retrieval of submersible drones in Cagayan last year.
Cabalza explained that underestimating China’s strategic calculation in Cagayan “is a sign of political immaturity to accepting risks of active threat actors in our own shores.”
“Preparedness and security readiness must be taught to local leaders who think only of their province’s economic security. National security is larger than a parochial interest,” he said.
Back in 2023, the US and the Philippines were preparing to improve the Naval Base Camilo Osias with the construction of a pier and repair of an airstrip, and Lal-lo Airport with the establishment of a fuel storage facility and command center.
However, Mamba also asked China to invest in a seaport and an airport with a three-kilometer runway in his province, saying that these could make Cagayan an “international gateway” for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.