August 6, 2024
JAKARTA – In preparation for the country’s simultaneous regional elections in November, political parties have been forming large alliances and jointly nominating candidates, putting popular hopefuls on shaky ground and leaving little room for competition.
The Jakarta gubernatorial election is one of the races where parties have been busily switching sides and forging partnerships to allow them to nominate a candidate for governor, as no parties meet the nomination threshold of controlling 20 percent of the seats in the local legislature.
But the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM), which consists of parties that backed president-elect Prabowo Subianto and vice-president-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka in the February election, is preparing to endorse former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil for the Jakarta race.
Last week, the Golkar Party, a member of the coalition, acceded to other members’ wishes to nominate Ridwan for the governorship of Jakarta, even though it meant not taking advantage of Ridwan’s higher polling figures for reelection in West Java.
The KIM also plans to form a broader alliance called “KIM plus” with other parties, including three prospective backers of Anies Baswedan, putting his potential bid for governor of the capital at risk despite him being the most popular hopeful among Jakartans. The alliance suggests that the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the NasDem Party and the National Awakening Party (PKB) might switch to supporting Ridwan for the position instead.
Anies and his team were not immediately available for comment.
Consisting of four major parties in the national legislature – de facto coalition leader the Gerindra Party, Golkar, the Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN) – as well as several other parties not represented in the legislature, the KIM has endorsed Gerindra politician Dedi Mulyadi for governor of West Java in place of Ridwan.
‘Not healthy’
Observers considered the KIM’s move an attempt to cut off Anies’ reelection bid, as recent surveys have found that the former governor remains the man to beat in Jakarta.
“When parties do that, it’s obviously not good and not healthy, but that’s what’s happening in our country right now,” political analyst Ujang Komarudin said on Monday.
Read also: Parties begin to unify behind Ridwan as Anies’ candidacy grows uncertain
Analyst Kennedy Muslim from pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia said the KIM’s triumph in the February presidential election made it appealing to other parties.
“The KIM has a massive bargaining position to ‘force’ parties to join its alliance for regional elections in exchange for a spot in the upcoming Prabowo-Gibran government,” Kennedy said.
Another political alliance, called the Onward Banten Coalition and consisting mostly of KIM parties, has emerged ahead of the Banten gubernatorial election, with Gerindra politician Andra Soni as its nominee.
Read also: Gerindra not worried by Golkar joining forces with rival PDI-P in Banten governor race
Golkar is the only major KIM party that is not part of the Banten alliance and is instead finalizing a deal to join forces with the rival Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) to back Golkar politician Airin Rachmi Diany for the position. Airin is a former mayor of South Tangerang and is polling significantly ahead of other prospective candidates for governor of Banten.
Uncontested races
As a result of party alliances, some regional races may only have one, uncontested candidate. Voters who reject the sole candidate can select the kotak kosong (blank box) on the ballot.
Former East Java governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa, who campaigned for the Prabowo-Gibran ticket in February, and her former deputy Emil Dardak look set to secure a nomination for reelection in the province from seven of the ten political parties that hold seats in the local legislature, including three KIM parties.
But concerns grew that the election might turn into an uncontested race after Khofifah revealed her intention to bring the remaining three parties into her fold: the PDI-P, the PKB and NasDem, the only KIM member that has not named a nominee.
Read also: Risma, Marzuki emerge as Khofifah’s likely challengers in East Java race
Association for Elections and Democracy (Perludem) director Khoirunnisa Nur Agustyati said the 20 percent nomination threshold meant very few parties were eligible to nominate candidates on their own.
“Inevitably, political parties have to form a coalition, and now the tendency is to join a big alliance, in which victory is almost a certainty,” she said.
Kennedy of Indikator said, “Everything is still possible, as party elites are still in dynamic negotiations to calculate the potential electoral profits and losses.”
The PDI-P, the KIM’s rival in the February presidential election, said it would not leave the gubernatorial elections in Jakarta or East Java uncontested, nor in North Sumatra where Gibran’s brother-in-law Bobby Nasution has won the support of seven of 11 parties.
PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto said the party was “still communicating with other parties” that were looking to name challengers in those provinces. While the PDI-P is eligible to field its own candidate pair in North Sumatra, it does not have enough seats in Jakarta or East Java to do so without forming an alliance.
“Political parties pushing for uncontested elections are not healthy for democracy,” he said in a statement on Saturday.