November 8, 2024
JAKARTA – Among President Prabowo Subianto’s campaign programs, the free nutritious meal program has garnered the most attention. Set to begin on Jan. 2, 2025, this program will not be the first of its kind.
According to the 2022 World Food Program (WFP) report, globally, around 41 percent of primary school students had access to free or subsidized meals daily. The program is linked to Indonesia’s effort to promote human resource development, which found mixed results in recent years. Stunting rates lowered from 31.4 percent in 2018 to 21.6 percent in 2022. Yet, Indonesia’s Human Development Index though considered “high” at 0.713, was ranked 112 out of 193 countries in 2022.
The 2022 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) test showed lower student performance in mathematics, reading and science compared to 2018. What should the incoming administration consider when delivering the free meals program?
First, articulating the free meals program’s impact pathway is crucial. Stunting was said to be a key goal of the program, yet targeting children under age five might be more effective in combating stunting, rather than targeting schools. Roediger et al. highlight factors such as maternal education, vaccination and household food security as key determinants of reducing stunting. Expanding beneficiaries to pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers and toddlers sounds socially responsible, but risks diluting the program’s objective.
Second, while the free meals program’s multi-objectives — improving child nutrition, educational outcomes and supporting local agriculture — are commendable, their trade-offs should be recognized. For instance, ensuring nutritional food might require imports, conflicting with the local agricultural support goal, echoing the classic food security vs. self-sufficiency debate.
The 2019 Food and Agriculture Organization report on school meals in 33 low and middle-income countries found that while most programs focused on nutrition, only half also aimed to support agriculture. Further, the report’s mention of the “less conclusive” impacts of school meals on educational attainment underscores the need for additional strategies to achieve educational goals.
The free meals program may create “secured” markets for commodities like milk and beef, continuing Indonesia’s push for self-sufficiency and job creation. The 2022 WFP report noted that feeding 100,000 students generated 1,377 jobs. However, Indonesia remains a net importer of key commodities, with domestic milk production meeting less than one-fifth of consumption, and imports reaching 4 million tonnes in 2023. Additionally, domestic agriculture faces challenges like low productivity and supply chain issues. To succeed, resources should not be diverted from boosting local agricultural production.
Effective trade policy is important for achieving the free meals program’s local agriculture goals. Price volatility and global-to domestic price transmission are major concerns for commodities like milk and beef. If the government becomes the largest buyer, rising global prices could strain foreign exchange.
However, protectionist policies are not necessarily the solution as these often create mismatches between farming and processing sectors, risk trade disputes and limit consumers’ access to diverse, nutritious foods. Instead, trade diversification and promotion including using trade facilitation and economic cooperation provisions in agreements such as the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IACEPA) and ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) should be utilized, including to support small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
An important area of cooperation is halal certification which has become mandatory including for imported foods. Additionally, improving mechanisms for food stock management, including data-driven policymaking and better storage and distribution, is essential.
Third, nationwide programs like the free meals program require robust governance. The program touches multiple sectors requiring a coordinating body. The new National Nutrition Agency (BGN), tasked with overseeing the national nutrition agenda, faces a challenge in managing inter-agency relationships, including with existing agencies like the National Food Agency (Bapanas), State Logistics Agency (Bulog), Agriculture Ministry, the Education, Culture, Research and Technology Ministry and the Office of the Coordinating Human Development and Culture Minister, as well as partnerships with regional governments, universities, the private sector and international partners, such as the School Meals Coalition.
Fourth, adequate funding is crucial. In the 2025 state budget draft, Rp 71 trillion (US$4.69 billion) was allocated to the free meals program, about 0.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and 10 percent of the education budget. The meal cost ranges from Rp 7,500 to Rp 15,000, but this is subject to factors like procurement, targeting, frequency and food waste. The BGN’s operational expenses and global price fluctuations for commodities like dairy and beef will also impact available funds. All these must be considered to keep the budget deficit below 3 percent of GDP and debt at 60 percent, as mandated by the State Finances Law, to avoid deterring investors.
Local sourcing poses another budgeting challenge, as food affordability varies across provinces (Figure 1). Thus, the free meals program’s resource distribution should be approached equitably. Mapping local potentials, including underutilized crops, is also essential amid climate challenges and micronutrient deficiencies. These factors may determine whether the program promotes local healthy diets or instead, leads to increased consumption of low-nutrition foods like sweetened condensed milk and sugary snacks, especially if the budget and local supply are insufficient.
Fifth, the free meals program shouldn’t be a stand-alone program but be integrated with nutrition education, school gardens, deworming and hygiene programs. Clear meal guidelines are needed to prevent issues like food poisoning or obesity. Building capacity in food handling and considering children’s preferences will help optimize outcomes and reduce waste. Finally, a broader focus on food system resilience is crucial, addressing malnutrition through a systems-thinking approach to assess root causes, potential solutions and cross-sectoral implications. While small trials help, a national road map with clear goals and coordination is essential.
As the free meals program is set to continue during Prabowo’s presidency, it should be seen as more than just a meal program— it’s too costly to fail. If managed well, it can drive broader human resource and agricultural development, supporting Indonesia’s 2045 Golden Vision of becoming resilient, prosperous, inclusive and sustainable.