November 18, 2024
JAKARTA – The Pramono Anung-Rano Karno Jakarta gubernatorial candidate pair, backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), appears on course to sweep the Jakarta race in a single round, a new poll suggests, with the duo widening their lead over the rival Ridwan Kamil-Suswono ticket, backed by President Prabowo Subianto’s big-tent Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM).
A recent survey released by pollster Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), taken between Oct. 31 and Nov. 9, found the Pramono-Rano pair had 46 percent of voter support, 6.9 percentage points ahead of the Ridwan-Suswono pair, which had 39.1 percent.
The survey, which interviewed 1,200 Jakarta voters and had a 2.9 percent margin of error, attributed the Pramono-Rano lead to the popularity of actor-turned-politician Rano, who played the lead in the popular 1990s Betawi-centric soap opera Si Doel Anak Sekolahan.
The Betawi people are the native inhabitants of Greater Jakarta.
The survey found that 93 percent of Jakarta citizens were familiar with the former Banten governor, who has been leveraging the name Si Doel in the campaign.
“Will [the upcoming Jakarta race go] a single round, where a candidate pair wins more than 50 percent? It’s a possibility. Seeing the developments of the past week, the closest to achieving that now is the Pramono-Rano pair,” said SMRC executive director Deni Irvani.
Read also: As Ridwan’s polling figures slip, Prabowo signals support
A separate poll by the research unit of Kompas newspaper also found that Pramono, who served as cabinet secretary for both of former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s terms in office, maintained a lead over ex-West Java governor Ridwan, with the former garnering 38.3 percent of voter support and the latter 34.6 percent. The survey by Litbang Kompas was conducted between Oct. 20 and 25 and had a 2.9 percent margin of error.
Another poll by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) from Oct. 10 to 17 showed that the support for the Pramono-Rano pair had grown significantly, from 28.4 percent in September to 41.6 percent in October, while support for the Ridwan-Suswono ticket had fallen from 51.8 to 37.4 percent.
Independent candidate pair Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana remained at the bottom and polled in the single digits in all surveys.
Growing support
Support for the in-house PDI-P pair appeared to continue pouring in even from the rival camp. A prominent volunteer group behind Jokowi and Prabowo called Bravo 5 declared on Friday its support for the Pramono-Rano pair.
The group claimed its decision to formally back the Pramono-Rano ticket was at the instruction of Luhut Binsar Panjaitan, one of Jokowi’s closest allies, who now serves as the head of the National Economic Council (DEN) and is President Prabowo’s special advisor for investment affairs.
The candidate pair also had a meeting on Friday morning with popular former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who hosted them at his private residence in Lebak Bulus, South Jakarta, according to a series of photos posted on Anies’ Instagram account.
“As I welcomed the rising sun this morning, I chatted about the city of Jakarta and its future with Mas @pramonoanungw and Bang @si.rano at home. [The meeting was] accompanied by lontong sayur [rice cakes in coconut milk soup with vegetables] and coffee prepared by @fery.farhati, which made the conversation even warmer and more enjoyable,” Anies wrote in the caption.
Since the unsuccessful presidential candidate lost his chance to seek reelection in the November race, after failing to secure the required support from political parties, both the Pramono-Rano and Ridwan-Suswono pairs have been vying for Anies’ supporters by presenting themselves as the candidates who, if elected, would continue his policies and programs.
Earlier opinion surveys found Anies leading in electability for Jakarta governor, but he was left out in the cold when his potential backers, the NasDem Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the National Awakening Party (PKB), nominated the Ridwan-Suswono ticket instead, a move seen to have prevented Anies from running for reelection.
But one week before the General Elections Commission (KPU) opened candidate registration on Aug. 27, the Constitutional Court issued a ruling lowering the nomination threshold for the regional races, opening a new path for Anies to run if he could secure support from the PDI-P, which at the time had yet to name a Jakarta gubernatorial candidate.
Although the party made some indications it was leaning toward nominating Anies, the PDI-P ultimately picked its own politician, Pramono, seen to have the favor of both the outgoing and incoming presidents.
Read also: Anies welcomes Pramono-Rano to his private residence
A bridge
Analysts have further attributed the growing support for the PDI-P-backed candidate pair to Pramono’s ability to appeal to two opposing sides: Prabowo’s camp and Anies’ supporters, most of whom are government critics.
“He has successfully presented himself as a bridge to all political factions, including those of [PDI-P matriarch] Megawati, Prabowo, Jokowi and even Anies and [popular former Jakarta governor] Ahok. Anyone could communicate with him,” said Agung Baskoro, executive director of the think tank Trias Politika Strategis.
He believed Pramono and Rano would not be likely to play an opposition role if they were elected Jakarta’s leaders, although the PDI-P has yet to formally announce whether it will support or oppose Prabowo’s administration.
“Pramono will likely accommodate the interests of the central government and play the role of a balancer between Prabowo and Megawati,” Agung said, adding that the position of Jakarta governor would not hold as much influence after the city lost its status as the national capital.