June 18, 2024
JAKARTA – Outgoing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s reported plan for cabinet reshuffle, one that might see his former party the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), ousted, is unlikely to happen as analysts warn it would destabilize the transition to his successor’s incoming government.
Speculation about a possible reshuffle emerged after Jokowi reportedly gathered party leaders of the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM), an electoral alliance backing president-elect Prabowo Subianto, at the Presidential Palace in late May.
Leaders of some major parties in Prabowo’s coalition, such as Airlangga Hartarto of the Golkar Party, have admitted that they met with Jokowi but insisted that the meeting was primarily focused on ensuring the continuation of Jokowi’s programs under Prabowo’s incoming government. Zulkifli Hasan of the National Mandate Party (PAN) said they mainly talked about regional elections in November and inflation.
In a report last week, news outlet Tempo.co cited several unnamed sources who claimed that Jokowi was considering replacing ministers who were unsupportive of his programs this month. The sources said, however, some party leaders told Jokowi that a cabinet reshuffle was unnecessary as his final and second term would end in October.
Jokowi himself last week denied that he had discussed a reshuffle with the party leaders.
But speculation of a cabinet meeting grew stronger after Communications and Information Minister Budi Arie, a staunch supporter of Jokowi, said later last week that the possibility of Jokowi revamping his cabinet nearing the end of his presidency remained open.
Budi neither confirmed nor denied when asked whether Jokowi was planning to remove ministers from the PDI-P, which has grown more critical of his government, only acknowledging that there had been complaints about the performance of some ministers who no longer have “great fighting spirit” in supporting Jokowi’s programs.
Budi, who also heads ProJo, the largest group of Jokowi supporters that have been behind the President since his first presidential campaign in 2014, did not reveal who the ministers in question were. “Let’s just wait. That’s the prerogative of the President,” he said on Thursday.
Jokowi was formerly a member of the PDI-P, a nationalist party that had backed his political career since his days as Surakarta mayor in Central Java. His membership is considered to have lapsed since some party officials suggested Jokowi had deserted the party to solidify his legacy by pushing for his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s pairing with Prabowo.
Seven of Jokowi’s ministers hail from the PDI-P: the Public Works and Housing Minister Basuki Hadimuljono, Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anung, Law and Human Rights Minister Yasonna Laoly, Social Affairs Minister Tri Rismaharini, Cooperatives Minister Teten Masduki, Administrative Reform Minister Azwar Anas and Women’s Empowerment Minister I Gusti Ayu Bintang Darmawati.
Having a cabinet reshuffle just months before the end of Jokowi’s presidency, however, may carry more risks than benefits, analysts said.
“I think the reshuffle plan needs to be weighed carefully by the President,” political researcher Wasisto Raharjo of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) told The Jakarta Post on Saturday.
“Less than three months would certainly be a very tight window for new ministers to accelerate the remaining government programs that are still underway,” he added.
Removing ministers who are members or have close ties with the PDI-P from the cabinet would also be “counterproductive” for both Jokowi and his successor Prabowo, analyst Agung Baskoro of think tank Trias Politika Strategis said.
The PDI-P, which won the most House of Representatives seats in the February legislative election, has yet to announce whether it will join Prabowo’s ruling coalition or be in the opposition camp. Prabowo reportedly has been lobbying the party to support his government.
Agung predicted that the PDI-P could “immediately turn into a full-on attack mode toward the incoming government, when in fact Prabowo wants to build harmony and synergy with all parties so that he could have a smooth transition and agenda going forward”.
PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto has yet to give any public statement regarding a cabinet reshuffle. But PDI-P politician Chico Hakim said on Monday that it was “the prerogative of Jokowi to appoint, remove or replace ministers”.