October 29, 2024
JAKARTA – Indonesian diplomats can stop reciting the now worn-out mantra “ASEAN is the cornerstone of our foreign policy,” because President Prabowo Subianto is not all that hung up on the 10-nation regional group.
As important as ASEAN is, it is becoming a straightjacket for Indonesia’s foreign policy conduct. It’s time for the country’s diplomacy to look beyond Southeast Asia to fulfill its ambitions as a global middle power.
Prabowo’s inauguration speech on Oct. 20 gave us a glimpse of what his foreign policy might look like. While he recited the well-tested principles of non-alignment and independent and active opposition to any military pacts, as well as to any forms of colonization, he omitted the ASEAN mantra which has been standard for any incoming president to reiterate.
Instead, he cited a “good neighbor” policy as the basis of his foreign policy, offering the old proverb that “a thousand friends is too few, one enemy is too many.” In today’s shrinking world, neighbors should also include more distant countries, not just those in Southeast Asia.
Prabowo’s decision to break with the tradition of leaving foreign policy to the experts by choosing a non-career diplomat for his foreign minister is a strong indication of major changes in Indonesia’s foreign policy strategy and conduct.
Sugiono, 45 years old and with a military background, has long been an assistant to Prabowo, so he has the President’s complete trust. Sugiono is not a novice on international relations. As an elected politician for Prabowo’s Gerindra Party, he sat in the House of Representatives’ Commission 1 which deals with foreign policy among other issues.
Prabowo is also restructuring the Foreign Ministry in appointing three vice ministers instead of the usual one.
The two senior diplomats, Arif Havas Oegroseno and Arrmanatha Nasir, will make up for any shortcomings in diplomatic skills that Sugiono may have.
The appointment of Islamist politician Anis Matta as the other deputy means that strategic policy in the Middle East will change. As the country with the world’s largest Muslim population, Indonesia has yet to fully tap the diplomatic potential of this region. Prabowo’s speech referring to Indonesia’s opposition to any form of colonialism should put to rest any notion that he would consider opening ties with Israel, at least not for now.
One major departure from his predecessor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is that Prabowo is not placing the economy as the focus of Indonesia’s diplomacy.
This is a president who knows where he wants Indonesia to be in the constantly changing geopolitical landscape. His education in Western school systems and his military years, as well as having spent the last five years as defense minister, have all prepared him well to lead Indonesia through the complex and challenging landscape of international relations.
While the economy is one key factor, it should not be the main or only concern for our diplomats. National defense and security should be more prominent, especially since Prabowo last month warned of the possibility of World War III breaking out.
With a new president who is active in international affairs, we can expect better alignment between defense and foreign policies, which at times seem to be moving in opposite directions. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ negative reaction to the 2021 formation of the trilateral security group involving Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) contrasted with Prabowo’s statement as defense minister a few months later that he respected Australia’s right to protect its national interests.
Perhaps Prabowo should consider a national security council in the presidential office to help coordinate better foreign and defense policies. After all, he already has a national economic council. Foreign policy should not be dominated by the Foreign Ministry or the Defense Ministry.
We have yet to hear Prabowo’s take on how Indonesia should respond to the intensifying United States-China rivalry, but the principles of non-alignment, remaining active and independent, not joining any military pact and the good neighbor policy mentioned in his inauguration speech should be the guiding parameters.
ASEAN has served a purpose for Indonesia’s diplomacy, but by now we should all recognize its limitations in solving many of the problems in the region. The Myanmar crisis and the territorial disputes in the South China Sea among some ASEAN members and China are challenges whose solutions may be found outside the group.
ASEAN will remain important for Indonesia as a collective voice on some global issues, but we should not be overly invested in it and should consider other avenues. Aside from using existing multilateral agencies, Indonesia may consider forming minilaterals with like-minded middle powers to find solutions to regional and global problems.
If ASEAN is going to be one of the cornerstones of foreign policy, then it is not worth reciting the mantra again. Prabowo’s good neighbor policy should instead take its place.
Anyone trying to foresee Indonesia’s foreign policy would do well to monitor Prabowo as well as the Foreign Ministry. He has already earned a reputation as a foreign policy president, in contrast to Jokowi as a domestic-issue president.
In his capacity as defense minister, Prabowo traveled to more than a dozen countries in the months leading up to his October inauguration, but he also used the opportunity to introduce himself as Indonesia’s next leader. His trip included Beijing, Tokyo, Paris, Moscow, Canberra and all the 10 ASEAN capitals, where he not only familiarized himself with international diplomacy, but also made personal contact with their leaders.
In November, he will make his international debut as Indonesia’s president when he attends the Group of 20 summit in Brazil and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru. There will also be plenty of bilateral meetings on the sidelines.
In the next five years, Prabowo, rather than Sugiono, will be the public face of Indonesia. Expect him to be more assertive in securing Indonesia’s national interests and in claiming the country’s position as a rising middle power in the world.
Neighbors in Southeast Asia and beyond have better watch out. Here comes Prabowo.