March 4, 2024
JAKARTA -House of Representatives lawmakers must brace for a likely vote to officially investigate election irregularities when they return from recess on Tuesday, as political parties backing the rivals of presumptive winner Prabowo Subianto agreed to join forces in a political process that analysts say will hinge largely on their united front.
The election body is due to announce the official election results by March 20, but signs indicate that Prabowo Subianto won a comfortable lead ahead of rivals former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politician Ganjar Pranowo.
Prabowo, who ran with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, claimed victory in the election after unofficial results from various quick counts in sample polling stations showed he had won nearly 60 percent of the vote.
But neither rival has conceded defeat, with their campaigners expressing concerns that the election was tainted by voter intimidation, manipulation of state institutions and misuse of state resources, such as welfare funds, during the campaign period to sway the election outcome.
Five parties in the Anies and Ganjar camps have suggested they were ready to launch a House inquiry into what they have described as “structured, systematic and massive” election fraud after lawmakers return from recess this week.
There were initially questions over whether the NasDem Party, the main sponsor of Anies’ presidential bid, would back the motion after the President reportedly lobbied party chairman Surya Paloh to accept the election result during a dinner at the Presidential Palace.
But NasDem and two other parties in the Anies camp – the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) – later announced that they were “ready to participate” in the legislative inquiry into alleged election fraud. They said they wanted to prove that the Feb. 14 general election “was the worst election in the country’s history”.
“The alliance of political parties behind myself and Anies is ready, solid and will propose [the legislative inquiry],” PKB chair Muhaimin Iskandar, who ran as Anies’ running mate in the election, said on Friday.
The three parties previously said they were equipped with evidence to prove their allegations and were waiting for PDI-P, the largest party in the legislature, to take the lead in launching the motion once the House reconvenes on Tuesday.
“We are ready with the data […] We are now just waiting for our colleagues from the PDI-P, as the largest party in the House and as the initiator, to make [the first] move,” NasDem secretary-general Hermawi Taslim said on Feb. 22.
The PDI-P suggested that it has taken a step toward launching the legislative investigation by forming “a special team” to gather necessary evidence of election fraud to make sure that the investigation will bear fruit.
“[The special team] will provide a recommendation regarding a complete strategy, with a timetable and possible options in exercising the right of inquiry,” PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto said on Wednesday.
The PDI-P’s pro-Ganjar ally, the United Development Party (PPP), will also support the motion, despite prominent member Sandiaga Uno once hinting that the party would be open to realigning itself with Prabowo and supporting his government after the election.
“The PPP remains solid in pushing the use of legislative rights of inquiry,” PPP advisory council chairman Romahurmuziy said, adding that an inquiry was needed to “disclose as clearly as possible any fraud in the election.”
Lawmakers are set to return from recess on Tuesday and convene at least one plenary session next week alone. For such an inquiry to be opened, 25 House members must propose it at a plenary session and the request must then be approved by more than half of the lawmakers attending the session.
Controlling 314 out of 575 House seats, the five parties in the Ganjar and Anies camps have a majority of 54 percent. The Gerindra Party-led Prabowo camp, meanwhile, commands just 45 percent of seats in the House.
While any results from the inquiry will not be able to change the election results, they are expected to target President Jokowi, who has been facing mounting criticism for using his clout and government resources to boost Prabowo’s chances of winning, analysts have said.
How far the inquiry will proceed will depend on how well the five parties can work together, analyst Arif Susanto said.
“Their solidarity is not only influenced by their current political orientation, but also by what happens after the election,” Arif said, adding that lawmakers who lost reelection might “demonstrate less loyalty to the party and may change their stance for their own interests.”
Analyst Ujang Komarudin predicted that NasDem, the PKB and the PPP would change their stance during the process and join the governing coalition led by Prabowo.
“Jokowi is still very much in power, and we can expect that he, along with the parties backing Prabowo, will try their best to block the investigation from progressing and degrading his presidency,” he said.