February 21, 2024
JAKARTA – Incumbent Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s ascension to the presidency may have proved that widely popular President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo maintained a strong influence in last week’s presidential election.
The question now lingers: For how long will Jokowi retain influence in the presidency of his preferred successor?
Analysts have said that Prabowo’s landslide victory of 58 percent according to quick count results was possible thanks to the unlikely alliance he struck with Jokowi, who has maintained approval rating of around 80 percent while nearing the end of his second term.
The former Army general has seen his popularity steadily rise since he named Jokowi’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his vice presidential candidate, positioning himself as the voice of continuity among rivals.
Political commentators describe the Prabowo-Jokowi relationship as one of mutual convenience, with the former riding on the popularity of the latter, who is attempting to build his own political dynasty and exert influence through his son once his term ends in October.
But observers are questioning whether the alliance will last once Jokowi leaves office and Prabowo, who has been his rival in past elections, takes over.
“From what I’ve seen, Prabowo is a brave and independent politician who has always been his own boss,” said security analyst Yohanes Sulaiman of Jenderal Achmad Yani University (Unjani).
“Will he become Jokowi’s man for the next five years? I’m not sure.”
Following in Jokowi’s footsteps?
Hailing from the prominent political family of Djojohadikusumo, Prabowo rose through the ranks of the Army’s Special Forces Command (Kopassus) under the leadership of then President Soeharto in the 1980s.
After he married the president’s daughter, he was seen as a potential heir to the regime. But the couple later divorced.
As Kopassus commander, Prabowo was accused of being involved in the forced disappearances of pro-democracy activists in the late 1990s. He was also accused of human rights abuses in Papua and Timor-Leste, then known as East Timor.
Prabowo has denied these allegations and has never been charged. He was discharged from the military in 1998.
After a controversial military career and the fall of Soeharto, Prabowo entered politics by starting his own political party, Gerindra. He ran for president against Jokowi in 2014 and 2019 but lost both times.
President Joko “Jokowi“ Widodo (left), accompanied by (from left) Army chief of staff Gen. Maruli Simanjuntak, House of Representatives lawmaker on Commission I overseeing defense Meutya Hafid of the Golkar Party and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, attends a press conference on Jan. 24, 2024, after an aircraft handover from the government to the Indonesian Military (TNI), at Halim Perdanakusuma Air Force Base in Jakarta. (Antara/Galih Pradipta)
The two then shelved their differences and Jokowi brought Prabowo into his cabinet in 2019 as defense minister in an apparent effort to coopt his main rival into his governing coalition.
Following his twice failed presidential bids when he used a firebrand opposition persona, Prabowo reinvented himself, changing from a feared general into a gemoy (adorable) grandpa and a candidate of continuity.
On the campaign trail, Prabowo repeatedly promised that he would continue Jokowi’s major policies, including the capital city relocation from Jakarta to the Nusantara Capital City (IKN) in East Kalimantan and developing the downstream industries of natural resources.
But Ben Bland, director of think tank Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific program, said it is likely that Prabowo will govern as his own man rather than as a proxy for Jokowi, once he takes office in October.
“Prabowo will have his own instincts when it comes to governing, although there was little detailed discussion of policy in the campaign,” Bland wrote in his newsletter. “When he gets his hands on the levers of power, Prabowo will want to set his own agenda.”
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Compromising
It also remains to be seen what Jokowi’s influence will be on national politics after he leaves office, given that the vice presidential office, soon to be held by his son, has limited power compared to that of the president.
“It will be difficult for Gibran, an inexperienced city mayor who seemed reluctant to speak at Prabowo’s victory rally, to use that position to exert influence,” said Bland, Jokowi’s first English-language biographer.
Once Prabowo controls the significant powers and patronage of the presidency, the politically promiscuous party leaders and tycoons backing Jokowi are likely to rally behind Prabowo, he added.
Some analysts are sure that Prabowo will have to manage his complicated relationship with Jokowi. Unjani’s Yohanes suggested that while Prabowo will not let himself be fully controlled by Jokowi, he might try strike a compromise with his predecessor as the former general cannot rely merely on his popularity.
“I think he’s smart enough to realize that the next five years are his chance to make his own mark,” Yohanes said. “He has to leave a strong legacy to be able to live up to Jokowi’s record as the country’s most successful president after the Reform Era.”