March 3, 2025
DHAKA – It’s a typical price pattern — every year, as Ramadan approaches, the cost of essential commodities climbs, sometimes sharply. And 2025 is no exception.
From coarse rice to soybean oil, potato to chickpea and dates to egg, prices edged up.
And the spikes began to take place nearly a week before the start of the fasting month as consumers started to go to kitchen markets and neighbourhood shops to buy Ramadan-related stuff.
On February 22, just a week ago of this year’s Ramadan, people in Dhaka city had to pay higher prices to get coarse rice, edible oil, chickpea, dates and eggs than a year ago, which put a financial strain on low- and fixed-income families.
Respite for them was that they did not have to pay higher for sugar, potato, onion, chicken meat and non-brand flour.
Back in 2022, a week before the fasting month, most commodity prices shot up, according to data from the state-run Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB).
In 2023, the situation was mixed — some items got more expensive, while others saw price drops. In 2024, the prices of most products went slightly down.
But in 2025?
Prices of five items, demand for which rises during the Ramadan, were higher year-on-year a week before the fasting month even though imports of soybean oil, chickpeas and dates, increased significantly.
But here’s the question: Is this just a case of increased demand, or is there something more at play?
Experts say it’s a bit of both. While market forces naturally push prices up during this time, a mix of supply chain manipulation, corporate dominance and weak government oversight makes the situation worse
So, what’s really behind this yearly price surge? It’s a mix of factors — some unavoidable, some questionable.
For one, Bangladesh’s economy has been dealing with high inflation, and the local currency has lost more than 30 percent of its value against the dollar since 2022. That means imported goods like edible oil cost more.
Add rising prices of palm and soybean oil to the problems, and you already have the perfect recipe for price hikes. But that’s not the full story.
Experts say there’s also a lot of behind-the-scenes manipulation.
Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), calls it a “game” played by traders. As demand spikes, many in the supply chain take advantage of the situation to maximise profits. And because government oversight is weak, there’s not much stopping them.
GRAPHIC: THE DAILY STAR
There’s also the issue of corporate control.
According to Abul Hashem, a wholesaler in Dhaka’s Moulvibazar, just four or five big companies control key markets like sugar and edible oil.
If they decide to cut back on imports due to various reasons, a supply shortage is created, and prices automatically go up, he mentioned.
“The demand data we’re using is outdated,” Hashem told The Daily Star. “We still rely on numbers from a decade ago, even though our population has increased. If we don’t know the real demand, how can we regulate supply properly?”
Retailers also play a role. When demand is high, many small and medium-sized traders raise prices, sometimes beyond justifiable limits.
Sumon Howlader, president of the Bangladesh Poultry Association, a platform for small poultry farmers and suppliers, claims that “big” corporate groups control the supply, which “artificially” drives up costs.
He points to an interesting case from Ramadan 2023.
After the government conducted raids on traders, the price of broiler chicken dropped significantly overnight. That, he says, proves prices were being inflated.
SM Nazer Hossain, vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), said that they have repeatedly urged the government to monitor the market and supply chain closely.
However, what is currently happening in the name of monitoring is nothing but a media trial, he said.
“Enforcement raids are being carried out only in some selected wholesale and retail markets, which is not an effective approach to market regulation. Another crucial issue is the lack of follow-up after these raids. In Bangladesh, follow-ups are almost non-existent,” he added.
Meanwhile, Taslim Shahriar, deputy general manager at Meghna Group of Industries, a leading commodity importer and processor, adds another piece to the puzzle: the exchange rate.
The rising dollar value has pushed up import costs, and when millions of people rush to buy the same imported goods at the same time, the supply chain struggles to keep up. Retailers take advantage of this gap, raising prices even further, he said.
CAN THE GOVT FIX THIS?
The government has tried various measures in the past — raids, temporary price caps, even importing essential goods directly — but nothing seems to provide a lasting solution.
The problem, according to experts, is that these are all short-term fixes.
Instead of addressing the root causes — corporate dominance and lack of accurate demand tracking — the government often resorts to quick interventions that don’t change the overall system, they said.
Moazzem suggests a more long-term approach: a digital market tracking system that would allow real-time monitoring of supply and demand. That way, the government could intervene before prices spiral out of control.
But will that happen anytime soon? Many are sceptical.
There’s a “deep-rooted” connection between large corporate groups and government, which makes bold regulatory action difficult.
“These groups have become so powerful that the government hesitates to take action against them,” Moazzem said.
Is the Ramadan price hike an unavoidable reality in a nation of 18 crore people? Most people think so.
But as the economy shifts and inflation continues to bite, these price surges are hitting harder than ever — especially for lower-income households.
What happens after Ramadan starts is even more intriguing.
TCB data over the past four years shows that a week into the fasting month, prices of essential goods have historically stabilised or even declined.
If things follow the usual pattern, prices may drop after the first week of Ramadan. But if corporate control and weak oversight remain unaddressed, the cycle will just repeat itself next year.
For now, consumers are left with little choice but to adjust their budgets.