March 1, 2022
DHAKA – Using mathematical modelling, Indian researchers have predicted that a fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic may lash India around June 22 and continue till October 24 with the peak expected in August.
The severity of the possible fourth wave of the pandemic will depend on the emergence of new variants of the infection and the vaccination status of people, including the administration of a booster dose, reports our New Delhi correspondent citing researchers from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Kanpur.
The mathematical modelling has been published on the preprint version of MedRxiv on February 24 but is yet to peer-reviewed.
The fourth wave’s trajectory is likely to be at its peak between August 15 and 31 and thereafter start falling.
This is the third time that IIT Kanpur researchers have predicted a Covid-19 wave in India after their projection about the third wave came very close to perfect accuracy with a deviation of only a few days. The team had predicted that the third wave of the pandemic in India would peak by February 3 this year.
The new research was conducted by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics in IIT Kanpur.
Using a statistical model for their prediction, the team said a fourth wave in India may arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date of the Covid-19 outbreak (January 30, 2020 when the first case in India was officially recorded in the southern state of Kerala with a girl student from China being the victim.
“Therefore, the (presumed) fourth wave starts from June 22, reaching its peak on August 23 and ending on October 24,” they said.