October 27, 2025
SINGAPORE – With just two weeks left until the world meets in Brazil on Nov 10 for UN climate summit COP30, less than a third of countries party to the Paris Agreement have submitted their national targets for curbing planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.
This comes despite scientists declaring in October that record temperatures fuelled by such emissions have pushed the earth’s ecosystems to its first catastrophic crisis, as heat-sensitive coral reefs enter widespread decline.
Under the Paris Agreement, nearly 200 countries that signed the world’s climate pact were asked by the UN to submit their climate targets for 2035 by February. Singapore did so on time, but as at Oct 24, only 63 out of the 196 parties had done so.
Ahead of COP30, which will take place over two weeks in the Amazonian city of Belem, The Straits Times unpacks the implications of the absent plans, and talks to experts on the significance of Singapore’s timely submission.
How worrying is it that countries missed the deadlines for their climate targets?
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims to limit global warming to 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial levels. Under the treaty, countries are meant to submit increasingly ambitious national targets – dubbed nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – to curb their greenhouse gas emissions every five years.
However, only fewer than 20 countries, including Singapore, met the initial February deadline to finalise their targets for 2035. More than 40 countries have since updated their NDCs, including Chile, Tonga and Angola.
Among those that missed the extended deadline of Sept 30 are the European Union’s 27 member states, as well as India, the third-largest contributor to emissions.
Meanwhile, the world’s top emitter China announced its targets in September, but has yet to formally finalise them.
The current climate of political uncertainty and economic pressures is the key driver behind these delays, analysts told ST.
Dr David Broadstock, a partner at economic consultancy The Lantau Group, said there has been a roll-back in public commitment to climate change within the US following the 2024 re-election of President Donald Trump, with spillover effects to other nations.
The US was among the earliest to submit its targets, having done so during the tenure of its previous president Joe Biden. But under the current administration, the world’s second-largest emitter will withdraw from the Paris Agreement in January 2026, joining Iran, Libya and Yemen as countries outside the deal.
Mr Trump has been dismissive of the Paris Agreement and the perceived benefits of renewable energy, and is highly supportive of expanding or sustaining the use of oil and gas, Dr Broadstock noted.
“This establishes a powerful undertone and rhetoric driven by one of the world’s major economic superpowers,” he said. “The old mantra that ‘it’s all about the dollars and cents’ has taken centre stage again, at the expense of environmentally and socially responsible decisions.”
These headwinds are buffeted by a global trade war initiated by the US, which has created economic and policy uncertainty that has stretched across much of the early half of 2025, he added.
Said Dr Broadstock: “There is no denying that however critical climate issues are, the present-day operation of the economy cannot be ignored, and it is no surprise that economic and trade policy negotiations increased in priority for many nations in this time, which naturally would have taken focus and resources away from finalising climate submissions.”
Climate observer Melissa Low noted that countries have not adhered to deadlines for submitting their targets since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, with many missing deadlines in the previous rounds. This is the third round of NDC submissions that countries have undergone.
For those that have submitted their targets so far, several did not align with the consensus that the countries reached in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels, added the research fellow at NUS’ Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions.
Ms Low cited an August report by the Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions, which analysed the commitments of 29 parties. It found that just 31 per cent of the targets explicitly referenced transitioning away from the pollutive fuels.
She added: “It will take political will and close alignment with the climate science to ensure we are on track to keep within 1.5 deg C.”
NUS’ Energy Studies Institute (ESI) senior research fellow Kim Jeong Won said delaying submissions could dampen immediate climate action, but that they may not reflect a lack of ambition to participate in global efforts to tackle climate change.
She said: “If countries missed the deadline simply because they needed additional time to set more ambitious, clearer and more detailed targets and mitigation plans, the delays would not discourage the momentum for global climate mitigation.”
What is the significance of Singapore submitting its 2035 NDCs on time?
On Feb 10, the Republic committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions to between 45 million tonnes and 50 million tonnes by 2035.
Given that Singapore’s 2030 target is for its emissions to reach 60 million tonnes of emissions that year, with a longer-term goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, the 2035 target put the Republic on a linear trajectory to meeting the mid-century target.
A linear trajectory means that the nation’s emissions are expected to decline steadily over time, instead of registering a sharper downturn closer to mid-century. Net zero refers to a point where the amount of greenhouse gases produced is balanced by the amount siphoned from the atmosphere.
A spokeswoman for the National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) said the plans were submitted on time to reflect the Republic’s commitment to global climate action and to signal its level of ambition.
She said: “As a small city-state with significant constraints in harnessing alternative energy, our mitigation efforts depend heavily on technological developments and international collaboration.”
Climate mitigation refers to action taken to reduce or prevent the release of greenhouse gases, or remove them from the atmosphere.
“Clear climate ambition and decarbonisation strategies provide a basis for us to facilitate collaboration with other countries and the private sector to advance the implementation of the Paris Agreement,” the spokeswoman said.
The Republic’s punctuality can also be attributed to an inter-ministerial committee that ensures the Paris Agreement’s obligations are kept, said Ms Low.
ESI adjunct senior research fellow Ho Hiang Kwee said the 2035 plan marks the first time that Singapore is targeting and offering an absolute reduction in emissions relative to current levels.
“This indicates clear commitment and progress towards our long-term target of net-zero emissions by 2050,” he added.
The Republic’s previous target of 60 million tonnes of emissions by 2030 had been viewed by many observers and analysts as relatively unambitious and inadequate, Mr Ho noted.
Singapore’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 reached 58.59 million tonnes. The Republic expects its emissions to reach a peak of 64.43 million tonnes in 2028, before coming down to 60 million tonnes in 2030.
German-based research group Climate Action Tracker said the previous target was at a much higher level compared with the pathway needed to keep the world on track towards its goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial levels.
Commitments by the Republic – considered a developing country under the Paris Agreement – are comparable to those of many developed nations in terms of absolute reduction targets and aiming to achieve net zero by 2050, said Dr Kim.
Singapore contributes about 0.11 per cent to global emissions.
Still, in the world of diplomacy, the timely submission can be seen as upholding the Republic’s international credibility as a responsible nation that values and respects international agreements and complies with them, said Dr Kim.
How will the 2035 targets influence discussions at COP30?
During the talks, parties will negotiate mechanisms to close remaining ambition or implementation gaps, said Dr Kim.
She said the 2035 NDCs could be used as evidence of whether countries acted on the call for stronger ambition of the first Global Stocktake, a 2023 assessment meant to inform NDC submissions. The Global Stocktake had, for instance, said the world should act more on climate action by tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency, among others.
“Thus, countries’ NDC strength or weakness and credibility will influence their bargaining power on finance and technology,” said Dr Kim.
At COP30, the NCCS spokeswoman said Singapore will showcase its commitment and efforts on climate action through tangible outcomes and progress at its pavilion in Belem, where the Amazon River meets the Atlantic Ocean.
The Republic intends to facilitate international partnerships to scale climate solutions in areas such as sustainable finance, carbon markets, adaptation and resilience, and sustainable and regenerative cities, she added.