March 24, 2025
SEOUL – South Korea is the only international aid recipient that has become an aid donor. That is regularly noted when describing its postwar transformation into the 12th-largest economy in the world. But the widely praised “miracle” has been paid with a demographic IOU. Now the debt is due — and the penalty rate is escalating.
The postwar 1950s was all about survival. The nation had to rebuild quickly. Grueling workweeks were required. In the following decades, South Korea urbanized and became a powerhouse, exporting industrial goods, technology and more recently entertainment. Meanwhile, the population was shortchanged.
Today, the nation’s fertility rate is the lowest in the world at 0.7, far below replacement level. It speaks volumes about what we have missed in our frenzy race to growth and prosperity. The lack of newborns also means a surging population age 65 and over if conditions do not change dramatically.
Low fertility is a worldwide phenomenon, especially among developed countries. Fertility tends to decline when a country experiences economic growth, with its living standards improved and more women enjoying education and career opportunities. However, ours is a standalone case characterized by an unforgiving mixture of conditions.
A place at the best universities and workplaces is highly coveted. That means after-school tutoring classes, which burden already overstretched household budgets, and legions of college graduates in overheated job hunting. Furthermore, defining a person based on a degree and job fuels the deep social and political divisions of today. And the Korean social order based on seniority suppresses fledging whiz kids. It does not encourage someone like Bill Gates, who dropped out of Harvard to found Microsoft. Surely there have been missed opportunities to diversify the economy and job creation.
The brutal culture of hyper-competitive education, job insecurity and consequent economic instability is persuading young adults to give up dating, marriage and having children. They were born and grew up in an affluent environment, compared with their parents’ generation. But they know too well about the hellish academic pressures and costs on top of exorbitant housing prices.
For young women, there is an additional toll. They enjoy almost equal opportunities in education with their male peers, but they are denied the chance to progress in the workplace if they also have a family. Worse still, they know that balancing work and family life will wholly be their own responsibility in Korean patriarchal society.
To maintain a stable population, the fertility rate, which is the number of children born during the lifetime of the average woman, needs to be above the 2.1 replacement level. South Korea’s fertility rate of 0.7 (2024 OECD statistics) suggests that, for every 200 people in the current parent generation, there will be only 70 children and 20 grandchildren.
The demographic repercussions will be difficult to avoid. South Korea’s population already began to decline in 2021. It is expected to halve over the next six decades, with the elderly aged 65 or older accounting for around 58 percent of the total population. During this time, the old-age dependency ratio, which refers to the number of retirees per 100 people of working age, will surge from 28 percent to 155 percent. The dilemma will intensify labor shortages and pose a formidable challenge to sustaining social insurance systems and maintaining living standards.
Over the past two decades, the successive administrations have implemented an array of population boost programs, pouring in an accumulated total of some 380 trillion won (approximately $260 billion). But those programs have focused primarily on financial support for child care and housing subsidies for married couples with children. It may be difficult to quantify the long-term efficacy of such programs, but the fertility rate continued to fall year after year. What caused a slight rise in 2024, the first in a decade, is yet to be explained.
“My knowledge and appreciation of Korean culture is limited, but for many people, the loss of the language and civilization that is Korea, with its unique history, would be tragic,” writes British demographer Paul Morland in his recent book, “No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children.”
He goes on, “The solutions to perennial low fertility will vary over time and in different places. What works in one country at one time will not work in another country, or in the same country at a later date. Bold experimentation will be required. We must try.”
A glaring problem with our government policies is that they target young married couples to encourage childbirth, instead of looking at the root causes of low birth rates among a broader spectrum of the population. This will require a multifaceted approach that includes the education system, housing market, economic diversification, workplace culture and societal structure.
There is no more time to waste. Whoever is president, whether it is Yoon Suk Yeol surviving impeachment or his successor, the threat from within must be recognized and forcefully addressed in a different manner. In short: Think out of the box to keep the nation from self-extinction.
Lee Kyong-hee is a former editor-in-chief of The Korea Herald. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. — Ed.