April 9, 2025
NEW DELHI – China’s latest overture to Pakistan’s military signals more than just a routine strengthening of bilateral naval ties. It marks a calculated pivot in Beijing’s Indian Ocean strategy, and India must take serious note of the implications. At the heart of this growing partnership lies China’s enduring interest in securing maritime routes vital to its economic and strategic security. With over 80 per cent of its oil imports passing through the Strait of Malacca, Beijing has long been concerned about potential chokepoints in times of crisis.
The emergence of Pakistan ~ and specifically, the Chinese-funded deepwater port of Gwadar ~ as a possible alternative has been clear for years. But a renewed emphasis on “expanding into new fields of cooperation” between the Chinese and Pakistani navies suggests movement toward more direct strategic alignment, possibly including military logistics, surveillance, or even forward basing. While no official announcements have been made about Chinese military access to Gwadar, the strategic trajectory is unmistakable. From joint naval exercises to discussions of enhanced cooperation, the groundwork is being laid.
Beijing has already established its first overseas military base in Djibouti, and Pakistan, a near client state, appears a natural candidate for a second. For India, this raises pressing security questions ~ not just about Pakistan’s increasing dependence on China, but about the broader military balance in the region. This tightening of China-Pakistan military cooperation also reflects a deeper convergence of interests. Islamabad views China as a dependable counterbalance to India, while Beijing sees Pakistan as a convenient partner and geographic gateway to the Arabian Sea. What India faces, therefore, is not just a bilateral challenge with either country, but a developing security axis between them that is increasingly assertive and regionally ambitious.
This growing synergy is not just about military drills or hardware transfers ~ it reflects a long-term strategic vision that could redefine the regional order and challenge India’s traditional maritime dominance. India’s strategists should respond with measured vigilance. Knee-jerk reactions or alarmism will not serve long-term interests. Instead, what is needed is a layered strategy: enhanced maritime surveillance, increased diplomatic outreach to Indian Ocean littoral states, and accelerated investment in naval modernisation. India must also continue deepening partnerships through multilateral frameworks like the Quad and regional forums such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA).
What’s unfolding in the Arabian Sea is not merely a matter of two allies deepening ties. It is the potential emergence of a new geo political reality where the Indian Ocean ~ long considered India’s strategic backyard ~ becomes a contested zone of influence between rival powers. The writing is on the wall: China’s ambition is not just economic but increasingly militaristic in nature. And in Pakistan, it may have found a willing partner for both. India must recognise this shift for what it is ~ not a temporary tactical move, but a strategic alignment that could reshape the balance of power in our neighbourhood for years to come.