June 18, 2026
ULAANBAATAR – The former Prime Minister L.Oyun-Erdene set a strategic benchmark to welcome 1 million tourists by 2025. In line with this vision, during her tenure in 2025, former Minister of Tourism Ch. Nomin announced a mid-term strategy to increase arrivals to 2 million by 2030.
To support these ambitious goals, the government launched the “Welcome to Mongolia” marketing campaign in 2023, allocating approximately 15.5 billion MNT in the national budget. These funds were primarily directed toward international exhibitions, global advertising, and supporting the liberalization of the aviation sector.
In 2024, the initiative evolved into the “Go Mongolia” campaign, introducing a new national brand to the global market. An additional 18.7 billion MNT was budgeted for high-quality content production, international broadcasting, the hosting of global influencers, and participation in premier international trade expos.
Over the past three years, Mongolia has invested a total of 34–35 billion MNT in tourism marketing—the largest investment of its kind in the nation’s history. While official figures show that arrivals reached approximately 790,000 in 2024 and 854,000 in 2025, falling slightly short of the 1 million target, the economic return on investment (ROI) remains impressive. The ratio of marketing expenditure to sector revenue stands at approximately 1:100, indicating that the investment has been highly effective in generating national income.
Despite this growth, a fundamental question remains for policymakers and industry leaders: “Is mass tourism the right path for Mongolia, or should we focus on attracting a smaller number of high-yield visitors?”
Experts remain divided on this issue. One group advocates for mass tourism from neighboring markets to accelerate economic turnover, while another emphasizes sustainable, high-value, niche tourism that preserves the country’s natural heritage.
At the 15th Asian Tourism Forum held recently in Ulaanbaatar, Dr. B. Yerbakhyt, a lecturer at Otgontenger University, provided evidence-based insights through his study, “The Economic Impact of European Tourists Visiting Mongolia.” The research team categorized 51 European nations by region and compared their impact with Mongolia’s primary source markets: Russia, China, Japan, and South Korea, utilizing comprehensive data spanning from 1999 to 2023.
Insights into the European Market
- Growth Trends: European arrivals peaked at 58,000 in 2019 before the global pandemic disrupted the industry.
- Western Europe Dominates: Western Europeans consistently represent 52–55% of all European tourists, reaching a historic high of 59% in 2006.
- Northern Europe in Decline: The share of Northern European tourists has dropped from 29% in 2000 to 14.5% in the post-pandemic era.
- Eastern European Surge: Arrivals from Eastern Europe rose to 24–28% post-pandemic. Researchers attribute this growth largely to the war-driven influx from Belarus and shifting regional dynamics.
Sector Revenue: Historical Growth and Market Structure
Dr. B. Yerbakhyt’s study meticulously analyzed total sector revenue by market over the past 25 years. While revenue peaked in 2019, the 2023 season marked the most significant post-pandemic recovery to date.
- Historically, China has contributed the largest share of total revenue. However, in 2023, a surge in revenue from the Russian and South Korean markets significantly boosted the overall national figures.
- Although European arrivals are lower in volume compared to Asian markets, revenue from Western and Northern Europe has proven to be the most resilient and stable stream over the last 25 years, regardless of economic crises or the pandemic.
Tourism Balance: Analyzing Economic Value
The study calculated the tourism balance by comparing inbound tourist numbers with outbound travel by Mongolians to those same regions.
Key Findings:
- The balance with China remains in a significant deficit. While Chinese citizens represent 18.3% of arrivals, 59% of all outbound Mongolian travelers head to China, leading to high “economic leakage.”
- The South Korean market was in deficit before 2005 but has since become a profitable inbound source.
The Spending Gap: Debunking the Japan Myth
The analysis of average long-term spending per tourist revealed that the common perception of Japanese tourists as “high-yield” is a misconception; they spend an average of $793, which is lower than the average Russian tourist ($914). Average Spending by Region:
- Northern Europe: $2,057
- Western Europe: $1,920
- Southern Europe: $1,727
- Eastern Europe: $1,700
- China: $1,022
- South Korea: $697.
Researchers found that every $1 spent by a European tourist generates an additional $0.11 in indirect impact and $0.49 in induced impact for the economy. This multiplier effect makes tourism a vital pillar for agriculture, herders, and SMEs. However, the study critiques that these benefits are not yet equitably reaching nomadic herders.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
The research concludes that Western and Northern Europe are Mongolia’s most economically efficient target markets. Specifically, the six European countries that send more than 1,000 tourists annually should be prioritized as high-value strategic targets.
While the Chinese market contributed $2.8 billion over 25 years, its negative tourism balance and low growth potential suggest it should not be the primary focus of investment. According to BCG Matrix analysis, while the South Korean market currently holds a high-growth “Star” position, it is expected to eventually slow down and mature into a “Cash Cow” similar to the Chinese market.
Ultimately, the study serves as a crucial reminder for Mongolia: to prioritize the quality and high spending of markets like Europe over raw arrival numbers, while ensuring that the resulting economic prosperity is inclusive of local communities and herders.
Sources:
- B. Yerbakhyt, B.A. Kapsalyamov (2024): “Economic Impact of European Tourists Visiting Mongolia.” L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana, Kazakhstan.
- Government of Mongolia Resolution No. 264 (2022): Declaring 2023–2025 as the “Visit Mongolia Years.”
- Vision 2050: Mongolia’s Long-term Development Policy Document. Government Action Plan 2024–2028: Strategy to make tourism a priority sector and reach 2 million tourists.
- National Statistics Office of Mongolia (NSO): www.1212.mn – Passenger Border Statistics and Tourism Sample Surveys (2002–2024).
- Bank of Mongolia: Balance of Payments Reports (Tourism service export and import data).