November 10, 2022
ISLAMABAD – WHAT happened in Wazirabad last week was perhaps a story foretold. The gun attack on Imran Khan has pushed the country deeper into anarchy. The would-be assassin may have been arrested but the motive behind the shooting remains shrouded in mystery. The former prime minister has been quick to blame the top government leaders and a senior ISI official for plotting the attack. He has named names.
It may have been a lone-wolf action but the incident has inflamed an already volatile situation. The attack has weaponised the PTI’s ongoing ‘long march’. By directly implicating a senior intel official in the alleged plot to ‘kill him’ the former prime minister has taken the battle to GHQ.
It seems to be a well-calculated move to step up the pressure on the security establishment on the eve of a critical transition in the army high command. Imran Khan’s letter to the president calling upon him to act against the “abuse of power and violations of our laws and of the Constitution”, and to delineate “clear operational lines” vis-à-vis the ISPR has accentuated the political divide.
Khan has also urged the president to take note of what he describes as “serious wrongdoings”, which were weakening Pakistan’s security, and to hold the “guilty” to account. Clearly, he was referring to elements within the security establishment.
The fear of civil strife looms large with the impending collapse of state institutions.
Khan’s appeal to the president for action seemed to have been triggered by last month’s unprecedented media briefing by the ISI and ISPR chiefs where the former prime minister was censured for his false foreign conspiracy narrative. The stand-off between the PTI and the security establishment also worsened after the alleged custodial torture of former federal minister Senator Azam Swati. The elderly senator who was arrested by the FIA last month in a case registered against him over a controversial tweet is now out on bail. He has accused two senior intel officials of being involved in the alleged crime.
Meanwhile, the release of an objectionable video featuring him and his wife has caused public outrage across the political divide. The image of the elderly senator breaking down during a press talk has shaken the country. Nothing could be more sinister than this act of videotaping the private life of an honourable member of parliament and releasing it. Predictably, fingers have been pointed at the security establishment.
Imran Khan’s insistence on nominating the intel official, along with the prime minister and interior minister, as a suspect in what he describes as a plot to kill him has intensified his confrontation with the security establishment. Unsurprisingly, the allegation drew a scathing rebuttal from the ISPR.
In a statement, the military rejected the accusation as “baseless and irresponsible” and warned that allegations against the senior army officer and the institution are “absolutely unacceptable and uncalled for”. The military has also urged the government to take action against the former prime minister for maligning the security institution.
Such scathing public exchanges are rare. They clearly show the growing hostility between the former prime minister and his erstwhile patrons. His aggression against the military leadership denotes no breakthrough in ‘back-channel talks’ with the generals. Apparently, the demands presented by Khan were believed to be unacceptable to the establishment. His rising populist support seems to have added to Khan’s hubris.
Moreover, though in opposition, the PTI has control of two of the most important provinces besides being in power in Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Having a government in Punjab has particularly given the party huge political leverage, making it much harder for the establishment to deal with the challenge posed by the PTI.
Still, it was not possible for Khan to get an FIR registered against the senior military official whom he publicly accused of plotting to kill him. The resistance apparently came from the chief minister of the province himself. It was hard for Parvez Elahi to take on the establishment.
Despite all the efforts by the PTI chief, the police refused to register cases against the prime minister, the federal home minster and the ISI official. It is only the gunman caught at the spot who has been named in the FIR after the Supreme Court’s order to register the first information report.
It was a clear message from the establishment about the limitation of Khan’s power and was seen as a strong rebuttal to the former prime minister. But that too has not stopped him from upping the ante.
It has been a good move by the prime minister to request the Supreme Court chief justice to form a full bench commission to probe the Wazirabad incident. Though in favour of a judicial commission, Imran Khan has expressed his reservations regarding the investigation agencies probing the failed assassination attempt. It’s highly unlikely that he will accept a verdict unfavourable to him.
Meanwhile, Khan has announced the resumption of the long march that was suspended after the firing incident. With violence spreading to major cities in Punjab, there is little hope of the situation calming down. It may take days for the march to reach Islamabad, but the siege of the capital already seems to have begun with PTI supporters blocking main entry points.
It may be outside the president’s constitutional power to act against a serving army officer as demanded by the former prime minister but the letter sent to him by Khan highlights the widening fault lines in the country’s power structure. The events of the past one week demonstrate the unravelling of the edifice. An increasingly divided state has worsened the power vacuum.
There is a complete breakdown of authority. The fear of civil strife looms large with the impending collapse of state institutions. The ongoing political confrontation and polarisation threaten to derail the democratic process. Imran Khan’s confrontation with the establishment cannot be taken as a battle for civilian supremacy. It’s a ruthless struggle for power. The country is hurtling towards a state of anarchy with no resolution of the crisis in sight.
The writer is an author and journalist.