October 2, 2024
NEW DELHI – The Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is a grouping of four Indo-Pacific nations, US, Japan, Australia and India. Its fourth inperson Quad leaders’ summit was hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware, recently. This would be the last summit for President Biden as also for the Japanese premier, Fumio Kishida, who will resign shortly. PM Modi in his remarks, terming the Quad as the ‘force for the global good,’ mentioned, “We are not against anybody, we are for international rulesbased order, respect for sovereignty.” He added, “Our message is clear Quad is here to stay, to assist, to partner and to complement.” The reality is that despite all announcements, the Quad is an anti-China grouping, though its joint statement, also termed as the Wilmington declaration, never mentioned China even once.
Biden was caught on ‘hot mic’ telling others, “We believe Xi Jinping is looking to focus on domestic economic challenges and minimise the turbulence in China.” He added that China continues to “behave aggressively, testing us all across the region on several fronts, including on economic and technology issues.” The camera feed also picked up the US NSA mentioning the first topic for discussion is ‘China.’ The joint statement covered a free and open Indo-Pacific, dangerous and aggressive actions in the maritime domain, destabilizing or unilateral actions to change the status quo etc., all concerning China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Lin Jian, mentioned in a press conference that the US is ‘lying through its teeth’ on the Quad not being aimed at China and ‘even the US media does not believe it.’
The Global Times, the Chinese government mouthpiece, mentioned in an editorial, “The Quad seems to position itself as a decision-maker in regional affairs, which essentially interferes in regional matters.” An editorial in the same journal attempted to blame India’s ‘independence and autonomy’ for the ‘slow development’ of the Quad. China had over the years been mentioning that the grouping is likely to fail, but on the contrary, the Quad has grown from strength to strength. Two of the four nations in the group, India and Japan, have territorial disputes with China.
In addition, nations have different regions of interest in countering China. India is more concerned about the Indian Ocean, largely west of the Malacca Straits, Japan the East China Sea, Australia the South Pacific and the US both the East and South China Seas. Thus, the Quad statement sought to offset these differences. It mentioned, “We strongly support IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association) as the Indian Ocean region’s premier forum for addressing the region’s challenges. We recognize India’s leadership in finalising the IORA Outlook on the Indo-Pacific and express our support for its implementation.”
This implied that the Quad expects India to take the lead in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, China continues to interact with nations in dispute, seeking to build ties, thereby challenging Quad unity. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, has had multiple meetings with the Indian External Affairs Minister and the NSA, working to revive bilateral ties. China is pushing the agenda that India must accept the changed LAC, based on current deployment and move ahead. They are hoping for a bilateral meeting between PM Modi and President Xi in Kazan, Russia, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit. This is unlikely unless there is forward movement along the LAC.
In New York, the Chinese foreign minister interacted with his Japanese counterpart, Yoko Kamikawa. The intent was to ignore territorial disputes and push ahead with bilateral ties. Both sides agreed to settle misunderstandings over Japan releasing contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea. Wading into the Quad-China conflict has been the Tibetan Government in Exile. The president of the organization, Sikyong Tsering, mentioned, “It looks like the Quad formation is getting more entrenched and as we have been mentioning over the years, the reality of China’s threat is very visible so I think India’s role particularly in this grouping will be very-very crucial.” These comments will not be to the liking of China but other than protest, there is not much which can be done. For China, the Quad is a challenge.
The grouping has the ability to reduce Chinese influence in its own backyard, South East Asia. Thus far India has avoided pushing the Quad into a military alliance, though this year a small message was sent when the statement detailed the launching of the ‘QUAD-at-sea Ship Observer Mission 2025.’ The intent is to improve interoperability and enhance maritime safety amongst the Coast Guards of the four nations. On this the Chinese spokesperson commented, ‘the cooperation should not target other countries or undermine regional peace and stability under any pretext.’ The Quad also announced a new Maritime Initiative for Training (MAITRI) in the Indo-Pacific, aimed at maritime security and law enforcement. India will host the first MAITRI workshop in 2025.
The intent is to enable countries in the region to better ‘enforce their maritime laws and also monitor illegal activities.’ In reality, MAITRI is aimed at tracking illegal fishing fleets in a nation’s own waters. Most illegal fishing fleets are Chinese. China has been attempting to woo India away from the US, thereby reducing the impact of the organization, but has so far failed. Its military action of 2020 in Ladakh was the catalyst for pushing India and the US closer. It is aware that India’s military and economic power will give the organization a boost. It has attempted to rope in Russia to achieve its goal, but India is firmly in the Western camp despite differences with the US on a few issues. The next Quad summit will be in India in 2025.
President Biden mentioned in his closing remarks, “While challenges will arise and the world will change, I believe the Quad is here to stay.” When questioned on whether it would go beyond US elections in November, he gestured towards PM Modi and mentioned, ‘way beyond November.’ For China, the Quad took the first steps towards building military alliances. More may follow. The Global Times summed up China’s fear by mentioning, “For China, the Quad summit is just another farce, but it is essential to take appropriate measures to prevent these countries from harming China’s national interests and reputation.”