June 29, 2026
THIMPHU – A generation ago, large families were the norm across Bhutan. Today, the size of average family has dramatically shrunk. Births are falling, parenthood is increasingly delayed and, for many, foregone altogether.
The government has introduced the Third Child Plus Programme (TCPP), offering Nu 10,000 per month for third and subsequent children, payable until the child reaches the age of three.
This initiative is the country’s most direct attempt yet to arrest a demographic decline that has been building for decades. Whether financial support alone can shift a deeply rooted social trend is another matter entirely.
Demographic shift
Bhutan has undergone one of the fastest fertility declines in South Asia. The total fertility rate (TFR) fell from 5.6 children per woman in 1994 to 2.5 in 2005, before dropping to 1.7 in 2017, according to the Population and Housing Census. Although the National Health Survey 2023 estimates the TFR at 2, it is not used for trend analysis because of differences in methodology.
Registered births have tracked a similar downward arc, from 11,001 in 2015 to just 7,230 in 2025, based on provisional data.
The implications are long-term and serious. Those aged 65 and above are projected to rise from 5.9 percent of the population in 2017 to 13.4 percent by 2047. A shrinking working-age population supporting a growing elderly one is a pressure Bhutan, like many small nations, is ill-equipped to absorb.
Currently, 62,271 women between the ages of 25 and 45 already have two or more children – a cohort either in or approaching the final years of their reproductive lives.
Without targeted intervention, officials warn, a substantial number of potential third and higher-order births will simply not happen.
A relief, but not enough
Thandri Sunwar, 35, gave birth to her third child on June 10, 2026. A vegetable vendor at Kaja Throm in Punakha, she welcomed the monthly support but was candid about its limits.
“I think the government should focus on other factors that make it easier for mothers like me to raise children,” she said.
Much of the Nu 10,000, she added, would likely go towards repaying loans and meeting existing household costs rather than the care of her newborn son.
Phurba, a civil servant based in Punakha, has four children. His third child is two years old; his fourth – unplanned – is eight months old. Both he and his wife work full-time.
“Raising children is challenging when both parents are working,” he said. “Even basic necessities like nappies are expensive. Nu 10,000 is not enough. There should be more flexible support and real incentives to encourage people to have children.”
A mother of two daughters echoed that sentiment. A single packet of nappies, she said, costs more than Nu 900. Once milk formula, clothing, healthcare and childcare are factored in, the monthly payment is absorbed quickly. “When you add it all up, the money runs out fast,” she said.
The hidden burden
Across both rural and urban areas, the women interviewed by Kuensel returned repeatedly to the same themes: the cost of childcare, the inadequacy of maternity leave, and the absence of workplace flexibility.
One mother of two described childcare as the single greatest barrier to having more children. She said babysitters cost more than Nu 10,000 a month, cancelling out the very incentive the government is offering.
Maternity leave in the private sector, often capped at three months, is too short. And while fathers can share the load, the daily responsibilities of feeding and caregiving continue to fall disproportionately on mothers.
A 32-year-old mother of a four-year-old said she regularly brings her child to the office because there is no one at home to provide care. “Money alone cannot solve the problem,” she said. “Without reliable childcare, many women will hesitate to have more than one child, or choose not to have children at all.”
Many mothers said instead of offering money to encourage childbirth, the government should focus on making it easier for parents to balance work and family life, more flexible workplace policies, longer maternity and paternity leave, affordable childcare services, and stronger community support systems.
Government’s multi-pronged strategy
Officials at the Office of Cabinet Affairs and Strategic Coordination (OCASC), which oversees the programme, acknowledge that cash incentives alone will not reverse the trend.
Tashi, the programme’s focal officer, said the TCPP was designed with this limitation in mind. The programme framework explicitly recognises that family-friendly enabling conditions are essential alongside any financial measure.
Accordingly, the government has directed multiple agencies to develop complementary support. The Royal Civil Service Commission is reviewing parental leave, flexible working and increased paternity leave. The National Commission for Women and Children is tasked with establishing crèches, and the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Employment is developing frameworks to facilitate foreign childcare workers.
The Ministry of Finance is pursuing pro-family fiscal initiatives, while the Ministry of Health is expanding fertility and clinical services. State-owned enterprises are encouraged to improve work-life balance and establish childcare facilities.
A key rationale for targeting third births specifically, Tashi explained, is one of fiscal efficiency. First and second births already occur under existing health and social support systems. Higher-order births are more constrained by financial pressures, making support at that stage a more targeted use of limited public resources.
The programme also includes a structured monitoring framework, with key indicators, including changes to the total fertility rate and gaps between desired and actual family size, tracked regularly. The framework allows for adjustments to eligibility criteria, benefit levels or programme duration based on evolving data.
“If birth rates do not respond as expected, the framework allows revisions,” Tashi said.
The National Health Survey 2023 found that 25 percent of Bhutanese women consider three children their ideal family size, yet third births continue to fall.
Officials interpret this as evidence of structural barriers, not a lack of desire. Women want larger families but face conditions that make them impractical.
As of June 11, 2026, the Department of Civil Registration and Census had identified 5,458 children eligible under the programme, comprising third, fourth and higher-order children born before June 4, 2026, and under three years of age at the programme’s launch.
Among them, 3,696 are third-born children, 1,253 are fourth-born, 364 are fifth-born, 98 are sixth-born, 36 are seventh-born, nine are eighth-born, and two are ninth-born children.
“These figures are subject to change on a daily basis as people register their children in the civil registration and census system,” said Tashi.
Lessons from abroad
Bhutan is not alone in facing low birth rates. Across Asia and Europe, governments have spent decades, and vast sums, trying to reverse declining birth rates, with mixed results.
Singapore, which has one of the world’s lowest birth rates, has introduced cash gifts for newborns, housing incentives and subsidised childcare. In 2023, it increased its Baby Bonus scheme to help families cope with the cost of raising children.
Japan has increased child allowances and invested heavily in childcare and work-life balance initiatives.
Sweden provides long paid parental leave, affordable childcare, and flexible work policies, making it easier for parents to balance work and family life.
Germany has expanded childcare services, introduced parental benefits, and promoted flexible working arrangements to support families and encourage childbirth.