January 28, 2025
SEOUL – As US President Donald Trump has hinted at attempting a fresh summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, South Korea is likely to confront more complicated diplomatic developments concerning US relations with North Korea.
When asked during a Fox News interview that aired Thursday, Trump said he would reach out to Kim again in his second term. “He liked me and I got along with him,” Trump said. “He is not a religious zealot. He happens to be a smart guy.”
Trump’s comment marked the first time he explicitly expressed his willingness to resume talks with Kim since he took office Monday.
Trump’s new overture for bromance diplomacy came at a time when the US is expected to try to resolve the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine is already complicated because North Korea has sent its troops to Russia to help fight Ukraine, according to Seoul’s National Intelligence Service.
Some media outlets in Seoul have raised the possibility that Trump might use bromance diplomacy to stop the dispatch of North Korea’s troops to Russia as well as its weapons support, to put more pressure on Russia over the war.
But this scenario has a big problem: North Korea’s unpredictability. On Sunday, for instance, North Korea said it had test-fired sea-to-surface strategic cruise guided missiles the previous day, marking its first provocation since Trump’s inauguration. Experts in Seoul call it part of a “typical hardline policy.” The missile test was also taken as an indirect response to Trump’s overture. In addition, the North’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday vowed to deal with the United States with “the toughest counteraction” while denouncing the regular South Korea-US joint air drills.
Given the North’s provocative tactics, Trump’s friendly gesture alone may not be enough to bring Kim back to the negotiating table. After all, during his first term, Trump’s bromance with Kim did not make any tangible progress.
In June 2018, Trump became the first sitting US president to hold a summit with a sitting North Korean leader when he met with Kim in Singapore. The first summit, however, resulted in few details about how Pyongyang would move toward denuclearization. In February 2019, they met again in Vietnam, but that summit also ended without any agreement. In June 2019, Trump held a third summit with Kim in the highly symbolic Demilitarized Zone, again ending with no progress.
Given that Trump’s previous “big deal” attempts with North Korea have all failed, speculation is mounting that Trump may seek an alternative route for a “small deal,” namely a negotiation aimed at pushing the North to give up its long-range missiles, but not all its nuclear weapons. In return, Trump is feared to opt for recognizing Pyongyang as a nuclear power and loosening sanctions on it to some extent. This scenario is not groundless since Trump already described North Korea as a “nuclear power” at the Oval Office on his first day in office.
All this means more trouble for Seoul, which is stuck with the political turmoil surrounding impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol. Equally alarming is that the Quad — a security dialogue involving the US, Japan, India and Australia — did not mention denuclearization or North Korea in its joint statement last week, which fueled speculation about a potential change in US policy toward North Korea.
To ensure that any concessions the United States might offer North Korea on denuclearization do not undermine South Korea’s security, the government must utilize its diplomatic resources to ensure that its position is fully reflected in the Trump administration’s policy toward Pyongyang. Failure to do so risks a recurrence of the “Korea passing” controversy, in which Seoul is left sidelined and its security imperiled.