July 26, 2024
BANGKOK – Political analysts are predicting two scenarios in Thai politics after the Constitutional Court issues its verdict in the case against Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin on August 14.
The case stems from the accusation by a group of 40 former senators that Srettha breached the charter and ethical standards by appointing Thaksin’s former lawyer Pichit Chuenban as PM’s Office minister even though he had spent six months behind bars.
Some spectators fear that the case could spell the end of Srettha’s career. The business tycoon entered politics in the May 2023 general election as one of Pheu Thai’s PM candidates.
Analysts said that if the charter court decides that Srettha’s action did not violate the constitution, he would continue his term without any obstacles, at least for the foreseeable future.
However, if the court decided to remove Srettha as PM, the ruling Pheu Thai Party would face an uncertain future ahead as leader of the government coalition.
If Srettha were to be removed, one of two outcomes would be the most likely.
First, the current cabinet will serve as a caretaker cabinet and select one of the deputy PMs to be a caretaker prime minister, who would use their authority to dissolve the parliament.
In this scenario, the new election date must be announced within five days of the dissolution, and the general election must be held in 45-60 days, according to the election laws.
This will give MPs a window of up to 30 days to switch parties, as the laws stipulate that MP candidates must be a member of a political party for more than 30 days before the election date.
Second, the caretaker cabinet does not dissolve the parliament, but follows Section 159 of the Constitution, in which the House of the Representatives vote for the new prime minister.
Eligible candidates must be PM candidates proposed at the last election by political parties who have at least 25 MPs (maximum three candidates per party). The winner must receive more than half of the votes from the lower house, or 250 out of 500 MPs.
Based on these criteria, six parties with 25 MPs and more who proposed prime ministerial candidates to the Election Commission during the May 2023 general election would qualify.
Pheu Thai Party, with 141 MP seats, proposed three PM candidates: Srettha, party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, and Chaikasem Nitisiri.
Move Forward Party, with 151 MP seats, proposed only Pita Limjaroenrat as PM candidate. However, the party is waiting for the verdict in the party dissolution case that will be announced on August 7.
Bhumjaithai Party, with 71 MP seats, proposed its leader and deputy PM Anutin Charnvirakul as PM candidate.
Palang Pracharath Party, with 40 MP seats, proposed its leader General Prawit Wongsuwon as PM candidate.
United Thai Nation Party, with 36 MP seats, proposed former PM General Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga as PM candidates. Prayut, however, is no longer eligible as he is now a privy councillor.
Lastly, Democrat Party, with 25 MP seats, proposed former leader Jurin Laksanawisit as a PM candidate.