June 27, 2025
NEW DELHI – When US President Donald Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities some days ago, the world braced for the worst. Many feared the dawn of a wider West Asia war, dragging in the United States more deeply than at any time in recent years. Yet, in a surprising and delicate turn of events, the gamble that looked so dangerous is beginning to yield results ~ for now. After initial violations, a ceasefire appears to be taking shape between Iran and Israel, bringing a sudden pause to what Mr Trump called the “12 Day War.” This could mark the beginning of de-escalation in a region that seemed poised for another cycle of violence. Whether this moment signals a genuine shift towards peace or merely a temporary cooling-off period remains uncertain. Iran’s retaliation for the US airstrikes ~ missiles aimed at an American base in Qatar ~ seems designed more to save face than to escalate.
The attack caused no casualties or damage, and advance notice to Qatar suggests Tehran was careful not to provoke a harsher US response. On the other hand, Israel’s decision to halt strikes after Iran’s public ultimatum deadline quietly passed indicates that even its leadership is willing to step back from the brink, at least temporarily, not the least because a wider conflict may have drawn in other countries. Mr Trump, for his part, has declared the episode a strategic victory. By combining overwhelming military force with swift diplomatic backchannels ~ reportedly involving Qatari mediators ~ the White House hopes to frame this as a demonstration of American resolve that forced both Iran and Israel towards restraint. The President’s social media posts project confidence, suggesting Iran’s response was weak and predictable and that peace could now be pursued in earnest. Sceptics, however, will caution that this delicate outcome could unravel swiftly.
The ceasefire is informal, untested, and born of mutual exhaustion rather than trust. Both Iran and Israel remain deeply suspicious of one another’s intentions. Any small provocation, miscommunication, or rogue action could reignite hostilities overnight. Furthermore, hardliners on both sides may yet seek to sabotage this fragile pause for their own political gain. For Mr Trump, the domestic implications are just as significant. If the ceasefire holds, he can claim to have delivered a high-risk foreign policy success ~ pressuring Iran without dragging the US into a costly new war. This would bolster his narrative as a leader who strikes hard but avoids prolonged entanglements.
But if this momentary calm collapses, the backlash ~ both political and military ~ could be severe. In the end, this uneasy pause is not a peace deal. It is an improvised arrangement between bitter enemies, brokered under the shadow of overwhelming force. The days ahead will reveal whether it holds or slips into renewed conflict. For now, Mr Trump’s bullying gamble stands as a precarious success. Whether it matures into a lasting diplomatic success ~ or simply delays the inevitable clash ~ remains the region’s most urgent question