April 4, 2025
SINGAPORE – The US has reclaimed its pole position as the superpower that South-east Asia would pick if the region is forced to choose a side, a new survey found.
This marks a pendulum swing back after China edged out the US for the first time in the 2024 edition of the same study.
The findings, captured in the annual flagship The State of South-east Asia study by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore released on April 3, revealed a shift in regional sentiment as concerns over Chinese influence in the region mount.
While South-east Asian countries have often said they do not want to choose sides, the poll suggests a preference for a strong US presence to hedge against worries over growing Chinese dominance in the region.
Walking the US-China tightrope
About 52.3 per cent of those polled said they would choose the US if Asean was forced to align with one side; the proportion stood at 52.9 per cent for those respondents based in Singapore.
More than half of those polled (51.6 per cent) ranked aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea as their top geopolitical concern, citing apprehension over Chinese encroachment into exclusive economic zones and fears of an accidental conflict between an Asean member state and China as their chief worries.
The results suggest that countries in South-east Asia see the US as a needed offshore balancer amid anxieties about rising Chinese assertiveness.
The study was conducted from Jan 3 to Feb 15, straddling the inauguration of a new US president on Jan 20 after Mr Donald Trump won the presidential election in November 2024.
The 2,023 respondents polled online included representatives from the private sector, academia, civil society, governments, as well as regional and international organisations.
In 2025, more have expressed confidence in the US’ role as a strategic partner and in regional security, up 10 percentage points to 44.9 per cent compared with 2024.
Unclear, however, is how South-east Asia views Mr Trump’s series of tariffs unleashed since, including a framework of reciprocal tariffs on April 2 (April 3 in Singapore).
Respondents have viewed China as the most influential country – politically, strategically and economically – in the region consistently over the past six years since the study’s inception in 2019, although the gap between China and the US appears to be narrowing.
Asean has been China’s largest trading partner since 2020.
The region may be awakening to the realisation that this is a double-edged development, as Chinese exports to the region have grown rapidly and local industries struggle to compete with cheaper Chinese products.
Tensions in the South China Sea, which a third of global maritime trade passes through, have remained high.
As China asserts expansive territorial claims, steps up patrols and clashes with claimant states, particularly the Philippines, the US has challenged Chinese claims by carrying out freedom of navigation operations.
Most recently, the Chinese military announced a patrol during US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s visit to the Philippines in end-March, where he reaffirmed Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to Manila.
Asean and China are said to be close to finalising a code of conduct two decades in the making.
“Legal issues on the South China Sea are complicated,” said Professor Liu Lin from the Institute for International Strategic Studies of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.
Speaking at a webinar launching the survey on April 3, she pointed to differing approaches by claimant states, ranging from the Philippines’ actions over Second Thomas Shoal to Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s dialogues on maritime issues with China.
While confidence in China doing the right thing has grown from one in four respondents to over one in three, the proportion who said they do not consider China a responsible or reliable partner has also inched up from 17.6 per cent to 22.5 per cent.
South-east Asia’s hedging strategy
The study underscores both the reality that South-east Asia remains a key battleground for influence between the world’s two superpowers and the tricky geopolitical tightrope facing Asean.
Nevertheless, most South-east Asian countries remain bullish on the prospects of relations with both superpowers, with the majority of respondents saying they see bilateral ties with both remaining the same or improving. Only 14.2 per cent thought ties with the US would worsen, and 19.5 per cent believed the same of China.
Among those anticipating an uptick in US engagement with South-east Asia under Mr Trump, four in 10 thought his tough stance on China would maintain a balance of power in the region and another three in 10 said his strong leadership can resolve conflict.
But the majority who were pessimistic believed that Mr Trump’s unpredictability adds uncertainty to US engagement with the region.
About one in three viewed the Trump administration as lacking interest in South-east Asia, while one in six said the US President would ignore South-east Asia and work with China directly.
“A real question mark is what the Trump administration’s approach in the Indo-Pacific will be,” Mr Peter Varghese, chancellor of the University of Queensland, said at the same webinar.
“The spectrum of outcomes ranges pretty widely from a G2 (Group of Two) arrangement to a harder-edged strategic competition,” he added, saying it is not clear whether Mr Trump shares his predecessors’ policy aim of economic, strategic and military primacy in Eurasia.
Fears here of a G2 arrangement, in which the US and China share an understanding about dividing up Asia into separate spheres of influence, have gained ground since Mr Trump’s rapprochement with Russia over the war in Ukraine.
Dr Michael Green, chief executive officer of the US Studies Centre in Australia, nonetheless pointed out that the study showed the “success of South-east Asia diplomacy”.
“No single great power dominates, and Asean states have multiple partners to work with to maintain a balance of power and influence,” he said.
“A lot of experts have predicted a Trump presidency will lead to an abandonment of Asia or a retreat from South-east Asia, but that’s not what poll respondents here are saying.
“We should be careful not to stereotype or simplify how South-east Asia will respond to and work with the Trump administration.”
While the US continues to be seen as the leading country to maintain rules-based order and uphold international law, a steady proportion of respondents also viewed Asean and the European Union as playing that role.
The EU remains South-east Asia’s most preferred partner, with 36.3 per cent choosing it as Asean’s best hedge against US-China rivalry, with Japan a close second (29.6 per cent).
Japan, too, maintains its pole position as the most trusted major power in South-east Asia in 2025.
“Japan’s respectful and cooperative approach to regional engagement remains well perceived despite domestic political shifts with the appointment of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in October 2024, which has raised expectations of a potential foreign policy recalibration from Tokyo,” said the study, which preceded major security developments including a new joint command in Tokyo and the deployment of long-range missiles in south-west Japan.
With the emergence of new formal and informal groupings in recent years such as Brics, Aukus and the Quad, however, a unified Asean approach appears elusive.
Views within South-east Asia were split on whether Asean should join such groups as a collective (23.5 per cent) or as individual countries (20.2 per cent); be mindful of doing so and risk undermining Asean’s centrality (23.8 per cent), or strengthen its convening power to discourage members from joining other groupings (26.2 per cent).
Amid a rising tide of protectionism, there appears to be consensus that Asean must accelerate regional integration, with 40.2 per cent agreeing that this is a top priority compared with deepening cooperation with partners, maintaining the status quo or disengaging altogether.
The key question remains whether Asean can successfully navigate numerous competing priorities.
Of all the issues facing the region, most respondents cited climate change and extreme weather patterns as its top challenge for the first time since the survey was conducted, though concerns over sluggish economic prospects were still ranked second.
- Lin Suling is senior columnist at The Straits Times’ foreign desk, covering global affairs, geopolitics and key developments in Asia.