Weddings, trade, and fuel: How the Iran-Israel war is affecting border communities in Balochistan

Waqar Baloch, based in the bordering town of Jaheen in Balochistan’s Panjgur, was all set for his wedding next week. But for a groom, his anxiety was of a different kind— half of his family was in Iran, where Israel is waging a war.

The ongoing standoff between Tehran and Tel Aviv has sent ripples across the Middle East, with both sides refusing to drop their guns. But while the global attention is fixated on the Mashriq, the conflict — which is feared to spiral into a third world war — has disrupted daily life in Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest and most underdeveloped province.

The province, which shares a 909-kilometre border with Iran, has been reeling from food shortages, a surge in fuel prices, the risk of unemployment, and heightened security concerns ever since the Iran-Israel war broke out. Families like Waqar’s are bearing the brunt of these tensions.

“One of my paternal uncles is a resident of Iran, and many of our family members live across the border,” he told Dawn.com. “They won’t be able to attend our wedding anymore.”

Waqar added that several items for his wedding — electronics, jewellery, and perfumes — were stuck at the border town of Paroom. Yet, he has decided not to change the wedding date, hoping the situation will soon de-escalate.

Just a few days after the war broke out, Pakistan closed border crossing points with Iran for an indefinite period. These include the key trade and transit hub Taftan, as well as pedestrian routes at Danuk, Cheedgi, and Jirak-Proom in Panjgur, Kech, Gwadar, and Washuk district. While the Foreign Office earlier announced that the border was fully functional, residents contradicted the statement, saying all crossing points had been closed.

For his part, Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti chaired a high-level meeting on Sunday to ensure the continued supply of food, fuel, and electricity in border towns, which have traditionally relied on Iran for supplies.

Cross-border trade

Zubair Baloch, a trader in Panjgur, depends on the Iran border for his livelihood. The last few days have been difficult for him to say the least.

“If this situation continues for a few more weeks, we will have to halt our children’s studies. We can’t afford their expenses or keep our business shut any longer,” he said.

Like Zubair, Hafiz Muslim, who lives in Mashkhel border town, feels like the clocks have reversed. “Markets are closed … we can hear the azan from across the border, but we can’t visit our family members on the other side,” he said.

There are many people like Zubair and Hafiz on both sides of the Pakistan-Iran border, who heavily rely on cross-border trade. Any conflict in either country directly affects their livelihoods and the communities living near the crossings.

“Most goods, edible commodities, and construction materials in these areas are imported through both formal and informal channels,” explained Dr Manzoor Baloch, economist and pro-vice chancellor of Gwadar University. “There is little by way of consumption, but there are huge impacts on the value chain of trade and business on both sides.”

Fuel and food crisis

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has not just impacted trade but also severely restricted the movement of goods and people in the region, creating a shortage of daily necessities in parts of Balochistan, including the provincial capital, Quetta.

“Bakery items like biscuits, cakes, baby milk, and other cooking necessities in Balochistan heavily rely on Iran,” explained Ghulam Hussain Baloch, a local trader in Balochistan’s coastal city of Gwadar. He added that many parts of Balochistan also depend on Iran for liquefied natural gas (LNG), fuel, and electricity.

Since the war broke out, Hussain told Dawn.com, a fuel crisis has gripped the province. “Due to these shortages, prices have skyrocketed.” A 2024 joint intelligence report revealed that nearly 10 million litres of Iranian petrol and diesel were entering Pakistan daily via land and sea. This fuel, which is normally sold for almost Rs50-60 cheaper than local sources, is vital for Balochistan’s remote regions — which are already impoverished and vulnerable — where even local supplies are hard to deliver due to high transportation costs.

“We are unable to travel to other parts of the province,” lamented Hafiz. “I’m especially worried that if someone falls seriously ill and needs urgent treatment … how will we take them to hospitals in other parts of Balochistan?”

The fuel shortages are also hitting agriculture hard, the only alternative livelihood for residents of border towns.

“The cost of running tractors and other machinery, like water boring engines, has increased due to the ongoing fuel shortage in our native border regions, particularly in the Prom area of Panjgur,” said Waqar.

The unsaid fears

The area most impacted by the Israel-Iran war, though, is the Makran division, which primarily relies on the neighbour for electricity. Power outages in cities such as Gwadar, Turbat and Panjgur could severely impact daily life, primarily the hospitals, businesses and schools dependent on it.

Fida Hussain Dashti, a resident of Kech district and former president of the Balochistan Chamber of Commerce, told Dawn.com that the Makran and Rakhshan divisions of the province are also entirely dependent on informal trade with Iran. “For the past several days, vegetables and fresh produce ready for export to Iran are stuck here,” he lamented.

Another growing concern, Dashti continued, is the potential influx of refugees if the conflict continues. He recalled how the same in the 1980s affected the local economy and disrupted ties among Baloch families across the border.

“The arrival of a large number of displaced people can overwhelm the already impoverished border communities here and ultimately strain the deeply rooted tradition of ‘Baloch hospitality’,” he said.

Threat of rise in militancy

Over the last couple of decades, both Pakistan’s Balochistan and Iran’s Sistan-va-Baluchistan province have witnessed secular militancy and ethno-religious armed conflict. On this side of the border, militants seek ‘separatism’. On that side, the struggle is primarily for the rights of the Sunni Muslim and Baloch populations.

Amid the current tensions, several secular Baloch militant groups with cross-border ambitions appear to be preparing to ‘seize the opportunity’, per security analysts. Among them are the ethno-religious Jaish-ul-Adl (Army of Justice), the Baloch Nationalist Army (BNA–Beebarg), and the Free Balochistan Movement (FBM). These groups have either indicated or openly announced their intent to take advantage of the Iran-Israel conflict in the region.

“The war risks diverting both Iran’s attention and resources away from Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province,” Malik Siraj Akbar, a journalist who has extensively covered armed conflicts in Balochistan, told Dawn.com. “The trajectory of this situation will be significantly influenced by Pakistan’s stance towards the war. If the United States pressures Pakistan to avoid supporting Iran, the border regions shared with Iran may become increasingly vulnerable to attacks by Sunni militant groups.”

In such a scenario, he continued, Pakistan is unlikely to crack down on these groups as they identify more by their Sunni religious identity than by their ethnic Baloch roots.

Talking about the war’s impact and push factors on other Baloch militants operating in Pakistan, Akbar said: “The government is expected to bolster security along its Balochistan border, especially in areas adjacent to Iran. This move may indirectly benefit Sunni militant groups, but it is unlikely to create any meaningful opportunities for left-leaning Baloch nationalist factions. A heavily monitored and securitised border will complicate cross-border operations, making it harder for Baloch insurgents to launch attacks in Pakistan and escape to Iran.”

“An alliance between the Baloch nationalists and the Sunni militants would be temporary but does not offer long-term promise due to their ideological differences.” It would be an attempt to “stretch their resources” by Baloch secular militant outfits to jump into it, he said.

“Ironically, the collapse of the current Iranian regime would go against the interests of the Baloch nationalists in Pakistan because it would lead to the rise of Sunni extremists who would likely act as the Taliban did with Pashtun nationalists in KP and FATA,” the analyst added.

For now, however, the local population on either side of border waits with baited breath as they hope the ceasefire announced by US President Trump holds and they can go back to their daily lives.

The writer is a journalist and researcher with a particular interest in political development and security in Pakistan’s Balochistan and Iran’s Sistan-va-Baluchestan provinces. He tweets at @ImtiazBaluch