March 11, 2025
KARACHI – A Pakistani-flagged vessel pulled into Chittagong Port on March 5 from where it will go on to Mongla Port, both in Bangladesh, at which it is set to discharge its cargo of 26,250 tonnes of premium basmati rice.
This shipment of rice, together with an earlier one of 25,000 tonnes in October 2024 from Karachi to Chittagong, marks a historic breakthrough – the resumption of government-to-government trade between the two countries after a hiatus of 53 years following the declaration of independence by East Pakistan as Bangladesh in 1971 after a bitter civil war with West Pakistan, today’s Pakistan.
In the intervening five decades, despite the normalisation of ties in 1975, hostility ensued between the two sides, fuelled largely by the Awami League in Bangladesh.
This was the political party founded by Mr Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s independence leader and father of the recently deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who, in multiple terms as premier totalling 20 years, took an anti-Pakistan stance and put diplomatic ties on the back burner.
The resumption of direct trade, including the rice shipments, followed the bottoming out of the diplomatic impasse between the two sides in August 2024 with the ouster of Ms Hasina.
“We have hammered out a deal with the Bangladeshi government to roll out 50,000 tonnes of high-quality rice in two equal consignments,” an official from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan told The Straits Times.
Its significance goes beyond the rekindling of trade between the two sides.
“This could mark the end of a 53-year diplomatic impasse in South Asia, with the potential to shake up regional dynamics,” remarked Dr Riaz Ahmed Shaikh, dean of the departments of social sciences and media sciences at Szabist University in Karachi.
Indeed, Bangladesh’s relations with the region’s dominant power, India, have cooled even as its ties with Pakistan, which has a testy relationship with India, have warmed. Bangladesh under Ms Hasina had leaned heavily towards India, including aligning its foreign policy with New Delhi’s interests.
Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus, who was sworn into office on Aug 8, 2024, has not met India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but has met Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at least twice.
Bangladesh’s lean away from India could also add to the growing rivalry in South Asia between the two major Asian powers, India and China, especially as Bangladesh and Pakistan both have close relations with China.
Still, the improvement of ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh, which has also seen growing military cooperation and diplomatic outreach, has led to hopes for broader cooperation among South Asian countries.
Easing tensions
Tensions between Pakistan and Bangladesh started to ease after the seismic political shift in Bangladesh in 2024, which saw Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Yunus stepping in as the head of an interim government after Ms Hasina was forced to flee to India following violent protests that killed more than 1,000 people.
Pakistan and Bangladesh share a turbulent history, tracing back to their emergence from British rule in 1947 as one country, Pakistan, with two regions – West Pakistan and East Pakistan.
Separated by 1,600km of Indian territory, the two regions struggled to see eye to eye on governance, economic policies and ethnic representation.
Mounting grievances in East Pakistan spiralled into a full-scale civil war between the two sides in 1971 that saw India’s military intervention and East Pakistan declaring independence.
Now, after decades of antagonism, Pakistan and Bangladesh appear to be turning the page.
A flurry of high-level exchanges has taken place, including multiple summits between Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif and Bangladesh’s interim leader Yunus, on Sept 25, 2024, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly and on Dec 18, 2024, during the Developing Eight summit in Cairo.
Military cooperation
Beyond trade, military cooperation has picked up pace in just seven months after unconfirmed reports of Pakistani military delegations visiting Bangladesh.
In a significant development in January, Lieutenant-General Kamar-ul-Hasan, deputy chief of the Bangladesh army, flew into Pakistan, where he called on Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir.
Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Navy in February took part in a biennial multinational naval exercise hosted by Pakistan in the Arabian Sea which also included China, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and the US.
This increasing military cooperation between Pakistan and Bangladesh signals a potential realignment in regional power structures.
“The surge in military delegation exchanges between Pakistan and Bangladesh points to a recalibration of South Asia’s geopolitical landscape,” observed Dr Khurram Abbas, a Pakistan-based strategic analyst.
“It suggests Dhaka’s growing interest in breaking away from overreliance on India while testing the waters with alternative defence collaborations,” added Dr Abbas, who heads the India Study Centre at the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad.
Beyond bilateral ties
“Islamabad is also looking to bring China into its growing cooperation with Bangladesh by setting up a trilateral forum or sealing a ‘tripartite security agreement’ among Pakistan, Bangladesh and China,” noted Dr Abbas, who closely monitors regional developments.
The new trajectory poses challenges for India, which has long held considerable sway over Bangladesh.
“Yes, the situation might put India in a tight spot,” said Szabist University’s Dr Shaikh.
“India faces a strategic challenge as Bangladesh, once docile, strengthens defence ties with Pakistan, making its eastern border increasingly uneasy alongside its hostile western front with Pakistan,” he added.
India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands sit near the vital Malacca Strait, through which 80 per cent of China’s oil imports flow, making Bangladesh’s geographic proximity highly strategic, he noted.
“Bangladesh’s expanding economic and defence ties with regional powers, including China and Pakistan, could reshape the Bay of Bengal’s dynamics, posing a challenge to India’s naval dominance,” Dr Shaikh explained.
As for Pakistan and Bangladesh, he noted that “people-to-people connections between the two countries could pave the way for more sustainable ties, rather than military cooperation alone”.
Potential for wider regional cooperation
Since the political transition in Bangladesh in 2024, trade has emerged as a cornerstone of engagement between the two nations. Notably, between August and December 2024, bilateral trade shot up by an estimated 27 per cent.
Before the latest rapprochement, Pakistan’s exports to Bangladesh amounted to about US$700 million (S$932 million) and imports from Bangladesh added up to about US$60 million.
The burgeoning trade ties have opened up new opportunities for Pakistani rice exporters, who now aim to export as much as 800,000 tonnes of rice to Bangladesh in 2025, according to Mr Malik Faisal, chairman of the Pakistan Rice Exporters Association.
The projected value of these shipments is around US$350 million, and is set to deliver a strong boost to Pakistan’s rice exports, which totalled US$4.5 billion in 2024.
The Pakistan Business Council, a key body representing Pakistan’s corporate sector, estimates that Pakistani exports to Bangladesh could soar to US$3 billion annually over the coming years if bilateral trade relations continue to pick up steam.
In tandem with the increasing trade ties, the two sides are also planning to resume direct air services, which were halted in 2018 amid deteriorating relations.
Bangladesh’s High Commissioner to Pakistan Mohammad Iqbal Hussain announced these plans in January and while no timeline was given for the resumption of direct flights, the expected move reflects a renewed commitment to people-to-people exchanges.
The evolving partnership between Pakistan and Bangladesh could also breathe new life into the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), a grouping that brings together Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
It has largely remained stagnant since its inception in 1985.
“Bangladesh has been backing Pakistan’s push to revive SAARC, a stance that has been received positively in Islamabad,” Dr Abbas noted.
Whether this new-found rapprochement will stand the test of time or buckle under political and strategic headwinds remains uncertain, particularly as Bangladesh’s domestic political landscape remains unpredictable.
“The situation in Bangladesh is still in flux, and it’s too soon to read too much into any long-term shifts in the region,” opined Dr Syed Jaffar Ahmed, dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Sohail University in Karachi.
A constituent assembly is set to be formed to revise the Constitution ahead of general elections in Bangladesh, expected to take place either in late 2025 or early 2026.
“The Awami League still has a strong foothold in Bangladesh, and no one can say for sure how things will pan out in the next elections,” said Dr Jaffar.
- Ashraf Khan is a Pakistan-based journalist who has been writing on geopolitics, economics, the environment and human rights for wire agencies for the past 25 years.