August 29, 2025
TOKYO – For decades, Japan has quietly engaged developing countries – now collectively known as the Global South – through steady development assistance by building schools, hospitals, roads and ports.
Now, this consistent outreach is gaining critical significance.
As Western democracies such as the US and European countries pull back diplomatically from the Global South, Japan – the only Asian member of the Group of Seven advanced economies – has emerged as a stalwart defender of the existing rules-based order that is under increasing pressure.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently welcomed leaders from over 40 African countries at the ninth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD9) summit, held from Aug 20 to 22 in Yokohama. He will also host Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a bilateral visit from Aug 29 to 30.
Observers note that both India, a key Global South leader, and continental Africa have become arenas of intense geopolitical rivalry.
Countries in the Global South are gaining agency as they develop and gain influence in multilateral institutions – sometimes even setting up rival frameworks – with rivals of the West, namely China and its partners, challenging the rules-based order by drawing Global South countries to their side. Japan sees a key avenue of defending the existing rules-based order against its challengers in engaging Global South countries.
It does not help the West’s cause that punishing US tariffs – imposed on more than 90 countries, with new rates ranging from 10 per cent to 50 per cent kicking in on Aug 7 – pose a grave threat to developing economies. On Aug 27, the US enacted levies of 50 per cent on Indian imports over the country’s purchase of Russian oil.
The closure of the US Agency for International Development and Europe’s focus of its resources on Ukraine’s war with Russia have created a gaping vacuum in outreach by advanced democratic economies in the Global South.
“The relative influence of Japan’s aid has increased, even if the absolute value may be similar to or lower than previous years,” Dr Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at US think-tank Hudson Institute, told The Straits Times.
“Japan has not lost sight of the reality that the rules-based order ultimately depends on who makes the rules, and the Global South is now a strategic arena of this competition,” he added.
Japan’s wealth of soft power and global trust, earned through decades of consistent engagement and, more recently, a self-professed “humility” at the heart of its diplomacy, is now vital as China tries to win friends to reshape this traditional order, experts argued.
Global South countries, however, “are not trying to decouple from the West”, but are on the lookout for better alternatives, noted Ms Asuka Tatebayashi, a senior analyst at Mizuho Bank’s global strategic advisory department.
“For example, when China offers oil-producing countries to trade in their local currencies rather than the US dollar, it’s very welcome,” she said. “It’s ultimately about the narrative, about what’s good for everyone, and not anti-West.”
Japan is adapting by offering better alternatives to the Global South, and its approach has evolved: shifting from top-down official development assistance (ODA), including soft loans at low interest rates, to championing private-sector investments and skills transfer.
The new focus demonstrates Japan’s interest in the recipient country’s growth.
TICAD9 was thus unique, observed Dr Heng Yee Kuang from the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Public Policy.
“Unlike previous summits, there was no splashy headline-grabbing announcement of Japan providing additional billions in aid. Instead, there was a shift in emphasis towards ‘co-creation’ as a buzzword for Japan’s engagement with Africa,” he said.
TICAD began in 1993 with a focus on government-to-government ODA. But the 2025 summit drew a record 194 participating Japanese companies, Ms Tatebayashi observed, as she noted Japan’s crucial role in shaping an economic order where Global South countries can thrive.
Japan wrote into the Yokohama Declaration, issued after TICAD9, its support for the African Continental Free Trade Area, while Mr Ishiba mooted the “Indian Ocean-Africa Economic Zone” to expand trade and investment in the region. Over 300 agreements were inked at TICAD9, spanning infrastructure, healthcare, agriculture, technology and education.
At Mr Ishiba’s summit with Mr Modi on Aug 29, Japan is poised to announce 10 trillion yen (S$87.3 billion) worth of investments in India over the next decade, with a focus on supply chains, artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
Tokyo will also pledge to accept 50,000 Indian specialist workers, as it aims to forge stronger business links.
With both Africa and India, Japan is leveraging its strengths in long-term, human-centric development, pledging support for job creation and specialist training.
India is also looked upon as a bridge for Japanese companies to invest in Africa.
Ms Tatebayashi said: “What Global South countries really want is growth and investment, and Japan is doing a lot to promote that.”
In this connection, Japan is promoting the idea of economic security, both for Japan and for the countries it is aiding.
The Yokohama Declaration contained language emphasising the “stable supply and responsible development” of critical mineral resources in Africa, which will benefit resource-dependent Japan.
It also highlighted the need for “long-term debt sustainability”, a subtle but pointed criticism of China’s alleged “debt-trap diplomacy” – extending unsustainable loans to gain leverage over debtor countries.
Dr Takeshi Sato-Daimon, who studies international development cooperation at Waseda University, told ST: “TICAD is valuable not only for its aid commitments, but also for embedding African voices into rules-based international frameworks.
“The Ishiba-Modi summit could build on that by institutionalising Japan-India cooperation in areas like digital connectivity, climate action and health, by linking them with global platforms such as the United Nations.
“The hope is to show that inclusive cooperation – not unilateral or zero-sum moves – can generate trust and durable growth.”
Japan should recognise that Global South countries prefer not to be forced into choosing sides, Dr Sato-Daimon added.
Instead of asserting its dominance, he said, Japan should “champion partnerships based on mutual benefit and respect”.
Such an approach will allow Japan to defend the rules-based order by promoting values such as transparency, maritime law and free trade, he said.
Such values are also core to Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision, though some countries view it suspiciously as a tool to contain China. African leaders, for their part, stated only that they took “good note” of the initiative.
As a US ally, Japan could also encourage American re-engagement in the Global South.
Simultaneously, Dr Sato-Daimon noted, it is crucial to ensure that China “remains tied in to cooperative regimes like climate, finance and health, rather than isolated”.
Dr Nagao also sees India as a wild card, given its warming relationship with China after years of hostility stemming from border clashes, as its ties with Washington sour. This, he said, will inevitably have implications for the Indo-Pacific.
From Tokyo, Mr Modi will travel to Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit from Aug 30 to Sept 1.
India is also part of the Quad grouping, which includes Japan, the US and Australia, while Japan has described India as an “indispensable partner” in the FOIP.
Ms Tatebayashi observed that Japan’s consistent engagement is particularly crucial in regions upended by the West’s retreat. She cautioned, however, that geopolitics is now at “a very pivotal crossroads”.
“Japan’s diplomacy is going to be tested from now, including the substance of its engagements,” she said.
While it was important to tap the economic growth engine of the Global South, the geostrategic pillar of protecting the existing order would only become more acute, she added.