October 9, 2025
BEIJING/TOKYO – Japan’s incoming prime minister Sanae Takaichi is reportedly skipping a visit to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in the coming week, a move Beijing will read for clues on whether she will continue her predecessor’s pragmatic course or take a harder turn in China-Japan relations.
Ms Takaichi, 64, is poised to become Japan’s first woman prime minister, after she was elected as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Oct 4.
She is set to take office when the Diet convenes for an extraordinary session, likely on Oct 15.
Despite having made statements across her three-decade political career that are revisionist and antagonistic to Japan’s neighbours, she drastically moderated her stance during her recent successful run for office.
Now, the spotlight is on whether her strong conservative leanings will emerge, and if she will ruffle any feathers in her first diplomatic tests.
These tests will come quickly, as she is slated to meet soon with the leaders of strategic rivals the United States – a security ally of Japan – and China, a neighbour with which Tokyo has had testy ties.
US President Donald Trump is expected to visit Tokyo for talks from Oct 27 to 29, with his trip bookended by Ms Takaichi’s own travels to Malaysia for Asean-related summits and to South Korea for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) meetings.
Tokyo is understood to be trying to arrange for a leaders’ summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Apec conference, with such meetings being held every year since 2022.
Analysts believe that Ms Takaichi will be uncompromising at home in the area of security, but be more pragmatic abroad than her reputation would suggest.
She will likely continue backing a more assertive defence policy, while introducing tougher laws on land grabs by foreign entities and espionage to address domestic security concerns.
But she is simultaneously expected to be more restrained in foreign policy – as her political mentor, the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, had been.
This restraint will likely be seen in her Taiwan policy.
While she has previously expressed strong support for Taiwan – the self-ruled island that China claims as its territory – through regular visits there and recent meetings with President Lai Ching-te and Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung, she is likely to reaffirm Japan’s ties with China on the basis of existing historical agreements, say analysts.
This means the informal diplomatic exchanges with Taiwan will likely stop, as in a 1972 agreement between Japan and China, Tokyo gave up recognising Taiwan as the legitimate government of China in favour of the People’s Republic of China.
And while Ms Takaichi usually visits the Yasukuni Shrine thrice a year – during the spring and autumn festivals, and on Aug 15 to mark the anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II – she told reporters on Oct 4 that these visits “should not be allowed to become a diplomatic issue”, hinting at the possibility that she would not visit it as the country’s premier.
The place of worship, where 14 Class A war criminals are enshrined alongside millions of war dead, is a flashpoint of Japan’s wartime legacy. China and South Korea consider it a potent symbol of Japan’s militarism and condemn political visits, while Japan sees it as only natural to pay respects to those who sacrificed their lives for the country.
On Oct 7, Japanese media cited sources as saying that Ms Takaichi would not visit Yasukuni Shrine during the autumn festival from Oct 17 to 19. The norm is for sitting Japanese premiers to send ritual offerings, and no prime minister has visited the shrine in person since Mr Abe went in 2013 in an act that drew outrage among Japan’s neighbours, as well as a rebuke from the US.
News of her reported decision trended on Chinese social media platform Weibo on Oct 8, where some netizens mocked what they saw as a swift change in tone, while others voiced scepticism over whether she would keep to her word.
Mr Chen Yang, a research fellow at Chinese think-tank Charhar Institute, told The Straits Times that while her past rhetoric on Japanese wartime history and the Yasukuni Shrine introduces “considerable uncertainty” in bilateral relations, Sino-Japanese ties are unlikely to deteriorate sharply.
Previously, as a lawmaker, Ms Takaichi could speak in an “unrestrained manner that reflected her personal stance” on issues, including those involving China, said Mr Chen, who specialises in Sino-Japanese relations.
“But as Japan’s prime minister, her words and actions will represent not just her but the entire LDP and the Japanese government. Any irrational or provocative act could have a direct impact on China-Japan relations and, in turn, harm Japan’s national interests,” he said.
He added that the change in her status “will compel her to exercise self-restraint on certain issues concerning China”.
Dr Shin Kawashima, an expert on Sino-Japanese relations at the University of Tokyo, agreed, noting how Mr Abe also distinguished his own personal beliefs from his position as prime minister.
Charhar Institute’s Mr Chen said that Beijing will, in particular, be watching for continuity on the Taiwan question in her first remarks after taking office.
Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his predecessor Fumio Kishida had, in their respective first in-person meetings with Chinese leaders, reiterated that Japan’s commitments under the 1972 Japan-China Joint Communique “have not changed in any way”.
Whether Ms Takaichi repeats that line is especially worth watching, said Mr Chen, adding that Beijing will also watch how she handles the Yasukuni Shrine issue.
Over in Tokyo, Dr Rumi Aoyama, who heads the Waseda Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies, told ST that Ms Takaichi’s government would likely maintain the current foreign policy direction.
“Just as Japan-China relations did not completely cool during the Abe era, they did not fully warm during the Ishiba era,” she said.
She added, however, that there could be a knock-on impact from Ms Takaichi’s longstanding conservatism on the public perception of Japan-China relations or Beijing’s evaluation of Japan’s policies.
China and Japan maintain extensive economic ties but remain divided by territorial disputes, wartime grievances and competing strategic interests shaped by Japan’s security alliance with the US.
On Oct 4, China’s Foreign Ministry called on Tokyo to “follow a positive and rational policy” towards China on the basis of its existing political documents, as well as to “honour its political commitments on major issues such as history and the Taiwan question”.
Analysts said who Ms Takaichi appoints to her Cabinet will be closely watched by Beijing, particularly for the foreign minister and defence minister posts, given that she lacks diplomatic experience.
Another litmus test will be whether she can convince Komeito, the LDP’s junior coalition partner which has longstanding ties with Beijing, to remain in their alliance.
The dovish Komeito, which is backed by the hugely influential lay Buddhist group Soka Gakkai, joined the LDP coalition in 1999.
“Without resolving the deep concerns of our supporters, there can be no coalition government,” Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito told reporters after meeting Ms Takaichi on Oct 4, as questions swirl over the future of their alliance.
Professor Lim Tai Wei, an East Asian expert at Soka University of Japan, said that her intended appointment of Mr Toshimitsu Motegi as foreign minister, as reported by various Japanese media outlets, potentially signals a desire to not rock the boat.
Mr Motegi, as Japan’s foreign minister from 2019 to 2021, is a “known card” to both the Chinese and the Americans, noted Prof Lim.
Relations will remain stable for the moment as “both sides need each other to navigate the turbulent waters of a global tariff war in a polycrisis world”, he added.
Charhar Institute’s Mr Chen noted: “Whether her Cabinet includes members known to or familiar with China, or consists entirely of hardliners and hawks towards China… will determine whether sufficient channels for communication between the two governments can be maintained in the future.”
Still, Dr Kawashima said that Japan – whose leaders have warned of a bloody war in East Asia should China attack Taiwan – will not be expected to sit back amid China’s growing regional assertiveness.
“Ms Takaichi’s first priority as PM will be to deal with security issues based on the rule of law, grounded on the principles of the US-Japan security alliance,” he told ST.
“Domestically, without specifically targeting China, she will also strengthen measures in areas where Japan has lagged, such as tightening laws on land acquisition by foreign entities and establishing an anti-espionage law.”