September 3, 2025
SEOUL – A formal summit among the leaders of North Korea, China and Russia remains unlikely, although their choreographed appearance side by side at Beijing’s Sept. 3 celebrations will be reminiscent of Cold War-era solidarity, according to South Korea’s intelligence agency.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un left Pyongyang by private train Monday afternoon to attend China’s “Victory Day” celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II following Japan’s surrender, according to the National Intelligence Service’s briefing to the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee on Tuesday.
Kim’s private train crossed the North Korea-China border in the early hours of Tuesday and arrived at Beijing Station at around 4 p.m., marking his fifth visit to China.
Kim is expected to stand alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Tiananmen rostrum during a military parade on Wednesday, according to Rep. Lee Seong-kweun of the main opposition People Power Party, who attended the closed-door briefing.
The arrangement of the leaders of China, North Korea and Russia, the NIS assessed, is intended to “restage the Cold War–era triangular solidarity structure,” Lee added.
The NIS also projected separate summits between Kim and Xi and between Kim and Putin, but believes there was little chance of an unprecedented three-way meeting.
The NIS “assessed that the likelihood is low, as a simultaneous gathering of North Korea, China and Russia would generate adverse military and security repercussions in the international community,” Lee said.
Rep. Park Sun-won of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea further explained that the three leaders’ “schedules are considerably tight tomorrow, and it is unclear whether there are common issues to discuss.”
“Instead of a formal summit, the leaders of North Korea, China and Russia are expected to showcase (their solidarity) by standing shoulder to shoulder at Tiananmen,” Park added.
The spy agency was also cautious about whether a three-way summit would translate into substantive cooperation.
“While the immediate prospects for substantive trilateral cooperation among North Korea, China and Russia are seen as limited, the agency said it is closely monitoring related developments,” Lee told reporters.
The spy agency also assessed that Kim appears to have viewed his trip to Beijing “as the optimal card to play in the current dynamics on the Korean Peninsula,” concerning the intent and background of his overseas trip, according to Lee.
Kim’s trip to Beijing has multiple purposes, including “broadening his diplomatic maneuvering space through the restoration of North Korea-China relations” as well as “drawing economic support from China and seeking a pathway for regime survival,” Lee told reporters after the closed-door briefing.
Other goals include “moving away from an overreliance on diplomacy with Russia, including hedging risks related to the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine war,” as well as “securing China’s backing and inducing a shift in the US stance, taking into consideration potential dialogue between North Korea and the United States,” Lee added.
The NIS further assessed that “North Korea may present a new, forward-leaning course for national development or seek reciprocal gains from Russia while weighing a possible visit (by Kim) to Russia.”
“Although Pyongyang is unlikely to readily enter into dialogue with Washington, it may still seek to create opportunities for contact while keeping a close watch on US attitudes,” Lee said based on the spy agency’s briefing.
“Looking ahead, the NIS analyzed that this trip represents Kim’s debut on the multilateral diplomatic stage — a bold step aimed at projecting the optics of North Korea-China-Russia solidarity — and that it could signal the possibility of (Kim) taking bold domestic and foreign policy actions,” Lee said.
Park explained that Kim’s trip to Beijing is tied to “laying the groundwork for his state governance,” highlighting the likelihood of Kim announcing a new strategic line at the 9th Party Congress, expected early next year.
According to the NIS, Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, director of the International Affairs Department Kim Song-nam and Hyun Song-wol, deputy director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department, have accompanied Kim.
The NIS also noted the possibility of Kim Jong-un’s wife Ri Sol-ju and his sister Kim Yo-jong traveling with him, and predicted that Kim is “expected to receive special treatment — including protocol and security on par with that afforded to Putin,” according to Lee.
The spy agency later in the day additionally confirmed that “Kim Jong-un appeared to be accompanied by his daughter, Kim Ju-ae, as he visited China this time.”
“In this regard, the National Intelligence Service is closely monitoring Kim Ju-ae’s activities,” the NIS said in a separate statement.