Hopes rise for Hallyu thaw, but K-pop remains wary of China expansion

Despite renewed diplomatic signals after President Lee Jae-myung's China visit, industry sentiment remains cautious, citing ambiguity on China’s policy stance and growing Tokyo-Beijing tension.

Kim Jae-heun

Kim Jae-heun

The Korea Herald

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South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung (L) and his wife Kim Hea Kyung (2nd L) take a selfie with China's President Xi Jinping (2nd R) and his wife Peng Liyuan (R) after a dinner at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on January 5, 2026. PHOTO: YONHAP/AFP

January 9, 2026

SEOUL – Anticipation is rising in South Korea over the possible easing of China’s nearly decadelong restrictions on Korean popular culture, following President Lee Jae Myung’s state visit to the world’s second-largest economy.

The unofficial restrictions, widely seen as a Hallyu ban, were imposed in 2016 following South Korea’s deployment of the US THAAD missile defense system, effectively blocking approval for K-pop performances and the broadcast of Korean entertainment content in China.

Speaking to the traveling press corps in Shanghai on Wednesday, Lee said he expects a gradual relaxation of China’s long-standing unofficial curbs on Korean content, suggesting progress could come step by step.

Despite renewed diplomatic signals, industry sentiment in Seoul remains cautious, saying nothing is certain when pursuing business in China.

Last year alone, at least six K-pop concerts that had raised hopes of a thaw were abruptly canceled or postponed indefinitely, underscoring the fragility of expectations.

Le Sserafim. PHOTO: SOURCE MUSIC/THE KOREA HERALD

On May 31 last year, boy band EPEX received approval for a solo concert in Fuzhou, Fujian province — the first such case in nine years — but the event was postponed indefinitely three weeks before the scheduled date, citing “local circumstances.” Similar cases followed, with indie band Say Sue Me failing to secure final authorization in July and girl group Kep1er postponing a Fujian fan concert in September.

The most prominent setback came later that month, when the “2025 Dream Concert,” a large-scale joint K-pop show planned for Sanya in Hainan province and expected to draw around 40,000 attendees, was canceled after failing to obtain final approval two weeks before the event, dealing a blow to expectations of easing restrictions.

While these events were typically scrapped in the final approval stage, limiting immediate financial losses, the repeated refusals on opaque grounds have steadily eroded the willingness of promoters to pursue K-pop concerts in China.

Expectations resurfaced in November last year, when Lee publicly signaled support for easing cultural restrictions during the APEC summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, where he introduced J.Y. Park, co-chair of the Presidential Committee on Popular Culture Exchange, to Xi. That meeting was widely interpreted as a symbolic attempt to restart dialogue on cultural exchanges.

Amid growing hopes, industry insiders say “hard realities” such as recent geopolitical tensions between Japan and China may have further complicated matters. As signs of cultural boycotts emerged between China and Japan over Taiwan-related issues, K-pop groups with Japanese or Chinese members have faced additional scrutiny.

In December, girl group Le Sserafim canceled a Shanghai fan signing event one day before it was scheduled to take place, citing “unavoidable circumstances.” Industry insiders attributed the decision to heightened sensitivities surrounding the group’s Japanese members amid strained China-Japan relations.

Aespa. PHOTO: SM ENTERTAINMENT/THE KOREA HERALD

“I’ve heard that Le Sserafim was not booked for performances in the Greater China region due to strained China–Japan relations, and that the presence of a Japanese member was cited as the reason,” a K-pop concert promoter in China told The Korea Herald.

Similar tensions surfaced in Japan, where Aespa’s Chinese member Ningning withdrew from NHK’s annual “Kohaku Uta Gassen” on Dec. 31, officially due to influenza. Her absence followed renewed online backlash in Japan over a 2022 social media post that some users claimed evoked imagery of an atomic bomb cloud, sparking petitions against her appearance.

According to IFPI’s “Global Music Report 2025,” China is the world’s fifth-largest music market, ranking two places above South Korea. With annual revenue growth reaching 9.6 percent in 2024 — the fastest among the top 10 markets — the country remains one of the most attractive yet high-risk destinations for K-pop expansion.

“The expectations are certainly growing,” said an executive at a major K-pop agency. “But uncertainty remains, especially since many idol groups now include Japanese members. Even if the Hallyu ban eases, agencies are facing a new set of challenges.”

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