February 20, 2026
SEOUL – Amid a continuing decline in South Korea’s school-age population, government data showed Thursday that 2,026 elementary, middle and high schools will have 10 or fewer graduates by 2030.
A total of 1,863 schools recorded 10 or fewer graduates this year, according to a government report submitted to Rep. Jin Sun-mee of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea.
The figure is projected to rise to 1,917 in 2027 and 1,994 in 2028, dip slightly to 1,914 in 2029, then surpass 2,000 in 2030.
Elementary schools accounted for 1,469, or 78.8 percent, of such small graduating classes this year, followed by 358 middle schools and 36 high schools.
By 2030, the numbers are forecast to reach 1,584 elementary schools, or 78.1 percent, 417 middle schools and 25 high schools.
The trend largely reflects a sustained decline in the school-age population, defined by the government as those aged 6 to 21.
The number peaked at about 14.38 million in 1980 and had been projected to fall to around 6.8 million this year, according to the Korean Statistical Information Service.
That contraction contrasts with overall population growth over the same period, from 38.1 million to 51.6 million. The country has aged rapidly, with roughly 21 percent of the population now 65 or older.
Under United Nations criteria, Korea is classified as a superaged society, meaning at least 20 percent of its population is 65 or above.
The total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime — fell to a record low of 0.72 in 2023. It edged up to 0.75 in 2024 and was estimated at around 0.79 to 0.8 in 2025. The Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Policy projections put the rate at 0.85 in the first half of 2026.
Jin’s report also showed that 2,196 schools nationwide had 10 or fewer new entrants in 2026, a figure expected to increase to 2,257 by 2030.
“As the school-age population continues to shrink, an imminent issue will be how to manage the assets of closing schools,” Jin said, calling on the central government to work with regional authorities to make use of their educational facilities.